Oracle Has 'Rich Uncle' Problem, Says Analyst As ORCL Stock Falls Over 9% In 6 Months: Future Hinges On Whether OpenAI Is 'Good For The Money'

Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) is on pace for its worst financial quarter since 2001, with shares sliding over 30% in the past three months as Jefferies analyst Brent Thill warns that the tech giant's immediate future is now linked to the financial health of its primary, yet opaque, partner: OpenAI.

Check out ORCL’s stock price here.

From Hype To ‘Show Me’

Thill, in a conversation with CNBC, noted that the market has shifted rapidly from an era of “AI hype” to “AI show me,” where investors demand tangible revenue to justify spiraling costs.

“It's the number one overhang,” Thill said, highlighting that Oracle's margins are compressing while capital expenditures (CapEx) soar.

The decline reflects broader anxieties about whether hyperscale debt issuance—recently flagged by Apollo Global economist Torsten Slok—is sustainable for companies financing the massive AI build-out.

During the ongoing quarter, the stock, which closed at $288.51 per share on Oct. 1, has dropped by 31.37% to $197.99 apiece as of Friday, Dec. 26. According to CNBC, this drop puts ORCL on pace for its sharpest decline since 2001 and the dot-com bust.

The ‘Rich Uncle’ Dilemma

The core risk was described in the interview as a “rich uncle” problem: Oracle is effectively “buying a house” on the promise that a wealthy but secretive relative—private company OpenAI—will cover the mortgage.

Because OpenAI is not publicly traded, investors cannot check the books to verify if the partner is “good for the money,” creating significant volatility.

“The success of Oracle is going to be directly linked to how well OpenAI's financials are,” Thill admitted, acknowledging the lack of clarity provided by Oracle on the specifics of the funding relationship.

See Also: Oracle Veteran Appointment Sends CID HoldCo Shares Up Nearly 24% After Hours

A 2026 Turnaround?

Despite the bearish chart, Jefferies remains optimistic. Thill argues that the AI market will inevitably consolidate around three major winners— Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic—drastically reducing the long-term risk.

He points to OpenAI's recent hiring of enterprise veteran Denise Dresser as a signal that the startup is maturing into a reliable corporate entity.

“We have a little more confidence that that rich uncle is good for it,” Thill concluded, predicting that large-scale enterprise adoption in 2026 and 2027 will ultimately vindicate Oracle's aggressive spending.

ORCL Rises In 2025 Despite Falling In Last 6 Months

Shares of Oracle have risen by 18.81% year-to-date and 15.33% over the year, whereas the S&P 500 index has advanced by 17.82% and 14.78%, respectively.

However, it was lower by 6.97% over the last six months and 3.40% over the one month.

It maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a poor value ranking. Additional performance details, as per Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, are available here.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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