Cui Dongshu of the China Transport Federation Branch published an article stating that looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand for new energy lithium batteries at the beginning of the year will drop sharply from the fourth quarter, and battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and vacations to respond to fluctuations in demand. The reason: First, new energy passenger vehicles were affected by vehicle purchase tax policy adjustments in early 2026, with sales falling at least 30% from the fourth quarter; secondly, after the year-end subsidy and duty-free rush, new energy commercial vehicles will inevitably face a sharp month-on-month decline in early 2026; third, exports of new energy passenger vehicles will still be good in early 2026, but battery demand from independent battery suppliers will not drive much; fourth, US energy storage demand was not significantly driven by domestic battery exports. In 2025, there was no significant impact on domestic battery exports.; the fifth is The tender price for domestic energy storage is far below 300 yuan/kilowatt hour. Demand for rising prices will inevitably weaken, and automotive batteries will not be able to share the cost of energy storage losses.

Cui Dongshu of the China Transport Federation Branch published an article stating that looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand for new energy lithium batteries at the beginning of the year will drop sharply from the fourth quarter, and battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and vacations to respond to fluctuations in demand. The reason: First, new energy passenger vehicles were affected by vehicle purchase tax policy adjustments in early 2026, with sales falling at least 30% from the fourth quarter; secondly, after the year-end subsidy and duty-free rush, new energy commercial vehicles will inevitably face a sharp month-on-month decline in early 2026; third, exports of new energy passenger vehicles will still be good in early 2026, but battery demand from independent battery suppliers will not drive much; fourth, US energy storage demand was not significantly driven by domestic battery exports. In 2025, there was no significant impact on domestic battery exports.; the fifth is The tender price for domestic energy storage is far below 300 yuan/kilowatt hour. Demand for rising prices will inevitably weaken, and automotive batteries will not be able to share the cost of energy storage losses.