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Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP): Valuation Check After Fitch Credit Upgrade and Leverage Reassessment

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Credit Upgrade Puts Focus Back on Ryman’s Balance Sheet

Fitch Ratings just bumped Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP) up to BB from BB minus with a Stable outlook, highlighting stronger operations and a healthier leverage profile even as it absorbs the JW Marriott Desert Ridge acquisition.

For investors, that upgrade is essentially an outside vote of confidence that Ryman can carry slightly higher debt in the near term while still growing EBITDA and keeping its balance sheet on a manageable path.

See our latest analysis for Ryman Hospitality Properties.

That backdrop helps explain why the share price, now at $97.69, has managed a 30 day share price return of 3.9 percent even though year to date share price return is still negative. A 5 year total shareholder return of 64.58 percent shows the longer term story remains firmly positive and suggests momentum could be rebuilding as investors grow more comfortable with Ryman’s growth and balance sheet trajectory.

If this kind of credit driven re rating has you thinking more broadly about where capital is quietly compounding, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with the stock still below analyst targets and trading at a steep implied discount to intrinsic value, investors now face a familiar question: is this a latent buying opportunity or has the market already priced in Ryman’s next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting meaningfully above Ryman Hospitality Properties last close, the implied upside hinges on steady growth and a rich future earnings multiple.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $115.833 for Ryman Hospitality Properties based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $130.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $106.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies paying a future earnings multiple above the sector, even as margins slip and shares outstanding climb each year? The full narrative lays out the precise growth runway, the profitability reset, and the valuation leap that analysts are incorporating, step by step, to reach that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $112.14 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, structurally higher interest costs or a sharp slowdown in convention demand could quickly compress cash flows and challenge today’s implied premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this Ryman Hospitality Properties narrative.

Build Your Own Ryman Hospitality Properties Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ryman Hospitality Properties research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.