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Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): Reassessing Valuation After 2026 Coal Shipment Guidance Update

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) just laid out its 2026 playbook, guiding for 15.1 million to 16.5 million tons of total coal shipments, a key datapoint for anyone tracking future cash flow and valuation.

See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources.

That guidance lands after a powerful run, with a roughly 35.6% 1 month share price return and a 47.7% 3 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum is still firmly with Alpha Metallurgical Resources even as investors reassess coal demand and execution risk.

If this kind of cyclical upswing has you thinking more broadly about what else could surprise, now is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Still, with shares trading above the average analyst target but our intrinsic estimates implying a steep discount, the real question is whether Alpha is mispriced value or if markets already reflect its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.7% Overvalued

With Alpha Metallurgical Resources last closing at $207.89 against a narrative fair value near $184.50, investors are weighing a premium against embedded growth assumptions.

Global underinvestment and persistent supply constraints in metallurgical coal mining (compounded by recent industry idlings and bankruptcies) are likely to elevate future prices and market share for well-capitalized producers like Alpha, pointing to potential upside for future revenue and margins as demand recovers or steadies, especially in high-growth markets like India and Brazil.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady top line expansion, rising margins, and a low implied earnings multiple can still point to a premium price tag? The narrative stitches these moving parts into one bold valuation story that is not obvious from the share price alone.

Result: Fair Value of $184.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, structural shifts toward scrap based steelmaking, along with potential regulatory tightening on coal, could quickly erode Alpha's demand profile and margin resilience.

Find out about the key risks to this Alpha Metallurgical Resources narrative.

Another View, DCF Signals Deep Value

While the narrative fair value implies Alpha Metallurgical Resources is 12.7 percent overvalued, our DCF model paints a very different picture, suggesting fair value near $463.68 versus the current $207.89. If cash flows are even roughly right, is the market misreading the long term story?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

AMR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
AMR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Alpha Metallurgical Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 902 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Alpha Metallurgical Resources Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Alpha Metallurgical Resources.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.