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Omeros (OMER) Valuation After FDA Approval of First TA-TMA Therapy Yartemlea and Shift to Commercial Stage

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Omeros (OMER) just cleared a major hurdle, securing FDA approval for Yartemlea, the first approved therapy for transplant associated thrombotic microangiopathy. This approval shifts the company from a pure development story to an upcoming commercial launch.

See our latest analysis for Omeros.

The FDA green light has clearly reset expectations, with a 1 day share price return of 75.54 percent and a 90 day share price return of 250.68 percent pushing Omeros to 15.36 dollars. Its 3 year total shareholder return of 550.85 percent underlines powerful long term momentum.

If this kind of move has you thinking about what else could re rate on clinical or regulatory wins, it is worth exploring other specialist healthcare stocks as potential candidates.

With shares now up more than 500 percent over three years but still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, investors have to ask: Is Omeros still mispriced, or is the market already baking in years of growth?

DCF Valuation Points To Huge Upside

Our DCF model estimates a fair value of 156.54 dollars for Omeros, compared with the latest close of 15.36 dollars, implying the shares trade at a deep discount.

The SWS DCF model projects Omeros future cash flows based on analyst expectations and company fundamentals, then discounts them back to today to reflect risk and time value. This approach is particularly relevant for a clinical stage biotech pivoting into commercialisation, where near term profits are limited but long duration cash flows from a successful therapy can dominate intrinsic value.

With revenue forecast to grow at more than 60 percent annually and earnings expected to turn positive and compound rapidly, the model assigns substantial value to the out years of Yartemlea and the broader pipeline. That long term profile can create large gaps between current market price and intrinsic value when sentiment has not yet caught up with improving fundamentals.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Result: DCF Fair value of $156.54 (UNDERVALUED)

However, execution risks remain, including potential launch setbacks for Yartemlea and the possibility that follow on trials or indications underdeliver compared with bullish expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Omeros narrative.

Build Your Own Omeros Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Omeros research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.