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Is Brown‑Forman (BF.B) Undervalued After a 28% Year‑to‑Date Share Price Decline?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Brown-Forman (BF.B) has quietly slipped this year, with shares down about 28% year to date, even as revenue and net income are still growing. That disconnect is where the story gets interesting.

See our latest analysis for Brown-Forman.

After a tough run that has left the year to date share price return at around negative 28 percent, the stock now trades at about 26 dollars and 89 cents. This suggests sentiment has faded even as fundamentals keep grinding higher.

If this kind of reset has you rethinking your watchlist, it might be a good moment to scan for other consumer names with more positive momentum and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares lagging despite steady revenue and earnings growth, and the stock trading below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, is Brown-Forman being unfairly punished or accurately priced for slower future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting above Brown-Forman’s last close of 26 dollars and 89 cents, the valuation hinges on modest but durable profit growth.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $31.259 for Brown-Forman based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how slow and steady revenue assumptions, slight margin compression, and a higher future earnings multiple still justify upside from here? The missing details sit inside this valuation blueprint.

Result: Fair Value of $30.91 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent demand softness in key developed markets and rising competition from premium and craft spirits could quickly undermine the slow and steady upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this Brown-Forman narrative.

Build Your Own Brown-Forman Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Brown-Forman research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.