According to the CICC Research Report, the real GDP of the US rose to 4.3% month-on-month in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding market expectations. Looking at the breakdown, strong consumer spending and demand for AI-related equipment investment contributed greatly to growth, while investment in traditional industries continued to be sluggish, indicating an intensification of the “uneven heat and cold” differentiation pattern within the economy. Imports have declined for two consecutive quarters, indicating that after “grabbing imports” at the beginning of the year, enterprises as a whole have slowed down the pace of imports. Although this GDP data is lagging behind, the resilience it shows may suppress calls to cut interest rates in the short term. CICC maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold in January and cut interest rates next time or in March.

According to the CICC Research Report, the real GDP of the US rose to 4.3% month-on-month in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding market expectations. Looking at the breakdown, strong consumer spending and demand for AI-related equipment investment contributed greatly to growth, while investment in traditional industries continued to be sluggish, indicating an intensification of the “uneven heat and cold” differentiation pattern within the economy. Imports have declined for two consecutive quarters, indicating that after “grabbing imports” at the beginning of the year, enterprises as a whole have slowed down the pace of imports. Although this GDP data is lagging behind, the resilience it shows may suppress calls to cut interest rates in the short term. CICC maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold in January and cut interest rates next time or in March.