Orient Securities: When gold and silver hit a record high, the pace of subsequent investment may diverge due to hidden waves

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that on December 22, London Gold now reached a record high of 4,400 US dollars for the first time, with a cumulative increase of more than 68% since this year; the current price of London Bank once climbed above 69 US dollars/ounce, which also reached the highest level in history. According to changes in the closing prices of gold and silver in the previous period and the implied volatility of flat value options, there may be differences in the subsequent investment pace between the two on the commodity side. Since being optimistic about gold in early November, the overall implied volatility of the Shanghai and Gold Equity Index has fluctuated within the 18%-26% range. The price of gold has maintained a steady rise, and the market has never entered an acceleration stage. Meanwhile, the price of silver hit a record high at the same time as the hidden wave, which meant that the short-term market fluctuated greatly in the future.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

When gold and silver hit record highs together, the pace of subsequent investments may diverge with hidden waves

Orient Securities believes that according to changes in the closing prices of gold and silver in the previous period and the implied volatility of flat value options, there may be differences in the subsequent investment pace between the two on the commodity side. Among them, there was a limited increase in the balance of the Shanghai and gold balance, indicating that the market has not yet reached an acceleration stage, and gold may maintain a steady upward rhythm in the future; while the price of silver hit a record high at the same time as the hidden wave, which means that the short-term market fluctuates greatly in the future. Although we are still optimistic about the rise in silver prices in the medium term, it is not advisable to blindly increase positions in the short term.

Gold: There is a limited increase in the balance between Shanghai and Gold, and gold may continue to maintain a steady upward trend in the future

Orient Securities said that since the beginning of November, the overall implied volatility of the Shanghai Gold Equity Index has fluctuated within the 18%-26% range. The price of gold has maintained a steady rise, and the market has never entered an acceleration stage. Although on December 22, along with Shanghai Gold's upward breakthrough of 1,000 yuan/gram, the average gold option in the previous period rose to 25% at the same time, but it did not deviate from the previous fluctuation range and is still within the normal fluctuation range, so gold may maintain a steady upward rhythm in the future. Under the medium-term logic of deteriorating dollar credit, gold still deserves investors' attention.

Silver: Prices hit new highs at the same time as hidden waves. Silver is still optimistic, but short-term fluctuations make it inappropriate to blindly increase positions

Since the price of silver in the previous period rose by 11,427 yuan/kg on November 6, the implied volatility of silver flat options in the previous period continued to rise from 24.67% to 46.29%. The price reached a new high at the same time as the hidden wave, and the two showed a strong positive correlation during the rise. This is very similar to the characteristics of when the London silver market first closed positions from September 22 to October 17. Looking backwards, I am still optimistic that financial attributes will drive the price of silver to continue to reach new highs in the medium term, but the short-term implied increase in volatility may suggest an increase in subsequent market fluctuations.

Aspect of the target

Equity side: It is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which has large resource reserves and is expected to increase copper production in the medium term. Mineral gold production continues to improve, and performance may accelerate upward (600988.SH). Other targets: China Gold Gold (600489.SH), Shanjin International (000975.SZ).

Risk Alerts

Domestic and international macroeconomic changes; tariff impact expectations and industrial chain stability; changes in Sino-US relations.