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Medtronic (MDT): Revisiting Valuation After a Quietly Strong Share Price Performance This Year

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Medtronic (MDT) has quietly outperformed the broader healthcare space this year, and its latest move in refining its device portfolio is giving investors a fresh reason to revisit the stock’s long term trajectory.

See our latest analysis for Medtronic.

That steady portfolio work is backing up what the market has already started to price in, with a 21.5% year to date share price return and a 23.5% one year total shareholder return suggesting momentum is still quietly building rather than fading.

If Medtronic’s steady climb has you rethinking the sector, this could be a good moment to scout other opportunities across healthcare stocks and see what else fits your strategy.

Yet with earnings still growing faster than revenue and the shares trading at a modest discount to analyst targets, investors face a key question: Is Medtronic still undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.2% Undervalued

With Medtronic last closing at $97.47 against a narrative fair value of $110.97, the current price implies investors are not fully crediting its projected earnings and margin trajectory.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $6.3 billion (and earnings per share of $5.01) by about September 2028, up from $4.7 billion today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $7.1 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $5.5 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how mid single digit revenue growth, rising margins, and a richer earnings base combine into that higher fair value math? The full narrative walks through the exact growth runway, profitability lift, and future multiple assumptions driving this upside case, step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $110.97 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could still be knocked off course if margin pressures persist or high profile launches like Hugo and Symplicity face slower adoption.

Find out about the key risks to this Medtronic narrative.

Build Your Own Medtronic Narrative

If you would rather rely on your own assumptions and preferred scenarios, you can quickly build a personalized view of Medtronic’s outlook in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Medtronic research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.