WEBULL

Assessing IREN (NasdaqGS:IREN) Valuation After Landmark Microsoft AI Deal and Dell GPU Expansion

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

IREN (NasdaqGS:IREN) is back in focus after securing a $9.7 billion multi year AI cloud deal with Microsoft, plus a major GPU procurement agreement with Dell, cementing its shift away from pure crypto mining.

See our latest analysis for IREN.

Those deals arrive after a wild ride for IREN, with a steep pullback in recent months but a powerful year to date share price return of over 300 percent and multi year total shareholder returns that still signal strong, if volatile, momentum.

If this AI driven story has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what other high growth tech names are building the next wave of infrastructure via high growth tech and AI stocks.

With shares still trading at roughly half of consensus price targets despite a 300 percent year to date surge, is IREN an overlooked AI infrastructure winner, or has the market already baked in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 55.6% Undervalued

According to BlackGoat, the most widely followed narrative pegs IREN’s fair value well above the last close of $42.07, framing today’s price as a steep discount ahead of a structural transition in the business.

What’s most exciting is that this massive Microsoft deal, worth $9.7 billion in total value, utilizes only 16% of IREN’s secured power portfolio. Waiting in the wings is the Sweetwater site, a 2,000MW giant scheduled for energization in April 2026.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how one contract, aggressive capacity build out and a bold profitability ramp combine into a surprisingly high fair value? The assumptions behind this target may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $94.84 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, key risks remain, including execution missteps on the Microsoft buildout or a sharp downturn in Bitcoin and AI demand that crimps future profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this IREN narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Step back from narratives, and the earnings multiple tells a cooler story. IREN trades at about 26 times earnings, richer than peer averages near 21 times but below the broader US Software sector at roughly 32 times, and under a fair ratio of about 40.

That mix of relative expensiveness versus direct peers but apparent headroom versus the fair ratio hints at both opportunity and execution risk, especially after a 300 percent year to date run. Is the market slowly catching up, or already leaning too far into the AI promise?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:IREN PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
NasdaqGS:IREN PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

Build Your Own IREN Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own thesis, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your IREN research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

Turn this momentum into a smarter strategy by using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover fresh, data driven opportunities before other investors catch on.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.