Rocket Lab Is Carving Out SpaceX Rival Status, Analyst Says

Rocket Lab Corporation (NASDAQ:RKLB) is positioning itself as an alternative to SpaceX as customers push for more launch capacity.

The company is leaning on its growing space systems business and next-generation Neutron rocket to broaden its reach.

Needham analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated the Buy rating on the stock, raising the price forecast from $63 to $90.

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Analyst Koontz views Rocket Lab as a disruptive company reshaping the rapidly evolving space industry. He stated that the company’s deep vertical integration differentiates it from most of its competitors.

Koontz believes this structure positions Rocket Lab to challenge industry leader SpaceX over time.

He noted the company’s space systems segment benefits from expanding government and commercial LEO constellation demand. That business supplies turnkey satellite buses, subsystems, and critical components to multiple customers.

The analyst said profits from space systems currently help fund Rocket Lab’s launch operations. He highlighted Electron as a proven small-lift rocket with more than 60 successful launches.

Neutron Rocket Outlook And Earnings Impact

He expects Rocket Lab’s upcoming Neutron rocket to expand launch capacity significantly. Koontz said Neutron is scheduled for its first commercial missions in 2026. He expects successful Neutron launches to improve earnings and cash flow materially.

Koontz added that capital spending and research costs are expected to decline as Neutron enters service. He believes Neutron could capture market share from SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Koontz said that customers are increasingly seeking alternative launch providers to gain pricing leverage and capacity flexibility.

Major Defense Contract Win

Koontz highlighted Rocket Lab’s multi-million-dollar award from the Space Development Agency’s Tracking Layer Tranche 3 program.

He said the contract validates Rocket Lab’s role as a prime contractor for defense. The award more than doubled the space systems backlog to about $1.4 billion, Koontz noted.

He stated that the $3.5 billion Tranche 3 program was divided among four prime contractors.

Rocket Lab received 23% of the total awards, alongside Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT), L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LHX), and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC).

Each prime will deliver 18 missile-warning satellites under the PWSA framework.

Technology, Revenue Timeline And Backlog Visibility

Koontz said Rocket Lab’s satellites will use its Phoenix infrared payload and StarLite protection sensors. Revenue recognition will follow a four-year 10/40/40/10 structure beginning in 2026, he said.

Koontz said recent acquisitions expanded Rocket Lab’s internal supply chain and reduced subcontractor risk. He believes this strategy broadens long-term value across defense programs.

Koontz said Rocket Lab’s placement beside established defense primes underscores its growing market credibility. He expects the company to gain further share in future national security space programs.

RKLB Price Action: Rocket Lab shares were up 0.15% at $77.67 at the time of publication on Tuesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $78.45, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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