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Assessing Andersons (ANDE) Valuation After Dividend Hike and Aggressive 2028 Earnings Guidance

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Andersons (ANDE) just paired a dividend bump with ambitious long term earnings guidance, sending a clear message about how management sees the next few years shaping up for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Andersons.

That confidence has been reflected in the market already, with Andersons posting a 41.71 percent 3 month share price return and a 149.91 percent 5 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum is building behind the growth story.

If this mix of income and growth potential has your attention, it could be a good moment to look beyond agriculture and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with the share price already up sharply, a richer dividend on the way and ambitious earnings targets in place, investors now face a key question: is Andersons still mispriced, or is the market already baking in that future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.4% Overvalued

With Andersons last closing at 54.70 dollars against a 50.00 dollars fair value in the most followed narrative, the story leans toward optimism but assumes a lot has to go right.

Issuance of 45Z tax credits and progressing carbon sequestration projects at ethanol facilities are set to lower effective tax rates and increase after tax profitability starting in 2026, expanding net income.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how much profit growth these tax perks and renewables bets are meant to unlock, and what future multiple that implies? The narrative quietly bakes in faster earnings, fatter margins, and a lower discount rate, all working together to defend that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that outlook could be quickly tested if commodity cycles remain unsupportive or if big ticket renewables investments fail to deliver expected returns.

Find out about the key risks to this Andersons narrative.

Another View: Multiples Paint A Cheaper Picture

While the main narrative flags Andersons as overvalued versus a 50 dollars fair value, its 25 times price to earnings looks less stretched beside peers at 30.9 times and a fair ratio of 41.6 times. If the market drifts toward that fair ratio, today’s entry could still work, or is the earnings risk too high to bet on mean reversion?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:ANDE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
NasdaqGS:ANDE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

Build Your Own Andersons Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own numbers, you can build a custom view in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Andersons research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.