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Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) Is Up 7.8% After Onslow Iron Hits Nameplate Capacity And Lithium Rebounds – Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Mineral Resources recently reported record quarterly shipments and confirmed its Onslow Iron project is operating at its 35Mtpa nameplate capacity, while benefiting from a rebound in lithium prices linked to supply disruptions in China.
  • This combination of fully ramped iron ore operations and renewed lithium market optimism has reinforced investor focus on the company’s dual exposure to steelmaking and battery metals demand.
  • Now we’ll explore how achieving nameplate capacity at Onslow Iron may influence Mineral Resources’ existing investment narrative and risk-reward profile.

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Mineral Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To own Mineral Resources, you need to believe in the long term value of its combined iron ore and lithium portfolio, despite earnings volatility and a stretched balance sheet. Hitting nameplate capacity at Onslow Iron strengthens the near term cash flow story, but it does not remove the key risks tied to heavy capital expenditure and commodity price swings, which remain central to the investment case.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the reported sale process for the Bald Hill lithium mine, which sits alongside a large A$1.9 billion FY 2025 capex program. In the context of Onslow Iron now fully ramped, any successful asset sale could help ease balance sheet pressure and support funding for core projects without relying solely on higher lithium and iron ore prices.

Yet behind the strong shipment numbers and lithium rebound, investors should be aware of the company’s elevated debt and funding needs...

Read the full narrative on Mineral Resources (it's free!)

Mineral Resources’ narrative projects A$5.8 billion revenue and A$284.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 9.3% yearly revenue growth and about A$1.19 billion earnings increase from A$-904.0 million today.

Uncover how Mineral Resources' forecasts yield a A$46.58 fair value, a 17% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ASX:MIN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ASX:MIN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Mineral Resources’ fair value between A$14.64 and A$68, highlighting sharply different return expectations. Set against this, the combination of heavy capex and exposure to volatile lithium and iron ore prices gives those differing views real consequences for future performance.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Mineral Resources - why the stock might be worth as much as 22% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Mineral Resources Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.