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Biogen (BIIB): Reassessing Valuation After New QALSODY Data, Pipeline Progress and Renewed Growth Optimism

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Biogen (BIIB) just got a fresh catalyst, with new long term Phase 3 and extension data for QALSODY in SOD1 ALS indicating slower disease decline when treatment starts earlier, and some patients even regaining lost function.

See our latest analysis for Biogen.

That QALSODY data lands in the middle of a real sentiment reset for Biogen, with the share price at $174.7 and a roughly 25 percent 90 day share price return signalling fresh momentum despite a weak three year total shareholder return.

If breakthroughs in neurology are on your radar, this is also a good moment to explore other innovative healthcare stocks that could benefit from similar long term tailwinds.

Yet despite a hefty 90 day rally and shares hovering just below analyst targets, Biogen still trades at a steep intrinsic discount. This leaves investors to ask whether this is a genuine entry point or if future growth is already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 2.3% Undervalued

Biogen's most followed narrative pegs fair value at roughly $178.76 per share, only slightly above the recent $174.70 close, suggesting a tight valuation gap.

Enhancements in operational efficiency through ongoing "Fit for Growth" initiatives, disciplined cost management, and portfolio prioritization are expected to improve cost control, drive higher net margins over time, and support stronger earnings.

Robust late stage and diversified neurodegenerative and specialty disease pipelines including Phase III launches in SMA, lupus, and kidney indications capitalize on regulatory momentum to address high unmet needs, creating multiple shots on goal that reduce future revenue volatility and support long term earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how shrinking revenues can still underpin rising earnings, fatter margins, and a richer future multiple than today, all under a 7 point something percent discount rate?

Result: Fair Value of $178.76 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Biogen's dependence on a handful of launches, along with mounting generic and policy pressures, could quickly erode the margin and multiple upside in this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Biogen narrative.

Build Your Own Biogen Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Biogen research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.