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Assessing Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO)’s Valuation After Its Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO) has quietly outperformed the broader market over the past quarter, with the stock up roughly 11% in the past month and 15% over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Alstom.

Zooming out, that 10.59% 1 month share price return builds on a solid year to date gain. A 1 year total shareholder return of 13.83% suggests sentiment is steadily improving despite a still weak 5 year total shareholder return.

If Alstom’s recent momentum has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to compare it with other rail and infrastructure peers using aerospace and defense stocks.

With earnings recovering but the share price still far below its 5 year high, investors face a key question: is Alstom trading at a genuine discount, or has the market already priced in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.8% Overvalued

Compared with Alstom’s last close of €24.86, the most followed narrative implies a slightly lower fair value, reflecting only modest downside from here.

The analysts have a consensus price target of €23.06 for Alstom based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of €33.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just €9.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what kind of earnings surge and margin reset could justify that valuation range? The narrative leans on powerful compounding and a future earnings multiple that might surprise you. Curious which assumptions really move the fair value dial here, and how sensitive they are to small changes? Dive in to see the projections behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of €23.72 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering supply chain delays and low margin legacy contracts could quickly undermine expectations for smoother execution and margin recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Alstom narrative.

Build Your Own Alstom Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized view of Alstom in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alstom research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to quickly surface focused opportunities beyond Alstom, and avoid missing the next compelling setup hiding in plain sight.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.