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Assessing AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) Valuation After Q3 Growth, Stronger Cash Flows and Investor Optimism

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) has been riding a clear shift in fundamentals, with higher gold prices, a 17% jump in Q3 production, and stronger free cash flow reshaping how investors think about the stock.

See our latest analysis for AngloGold Ashanti.

Those operational gains are clearly feeding into sentiment, with a 29.65% 3 month share price return and a 299.62% 1 year total shareholder return pointing to strong, building momentum rather than a one off spike.

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With the shares up sharply and trading just below analyst targets, yet still screened as undervalued on intrinsic metrics, the key question now is simple: is AngloGold still attractive at current levels, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 60% Undervalued

With AngloGold Ashanti last closing at $90 compared to a narrative fair value near $145, the current pricing gap is striking and demands context.

Organic production growth from brownfield projects (Obuasi ramp up, Cuiabá, Siguiri, Geita, and upcoming Nevada developments) is set to increase output volumes and extend mine life, driving future revenue and earnings growth over the next decade. Advancements in operational excellence programs and technology driven efficiency gains are enabling cost containment despite inflation and rising royalty costs, setting a foundation for further net margin expansion and enhanced cash flow conversion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how robust volume growth, rising margins, and a recalibrated future earnings multiple can still point to such a large upside gap? The full narrative unpacks the precise growth runway, profitability path, and discount rate assumptions that have allowed this fair value to move far ahead of today’s share price.

Result: Fair Value of $145.93 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cost inflation and potential permitting delays in key Nevada projects could compress future margins and slow the anticipated earnings ramp.

Find out about the key risks to this AngloGold Ashanti narrative.

Build Your Own AngloGold Ashanti Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to analyze the numbers yourself, you can quickly build a personalized AngloGold thesis in under three minutes here: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your AngloGold Ashanti research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.