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The Bull Case For Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Could Change Following Ohio-Utica Deal And Hedging Expansion

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. recently completed a joint acquisition of a 49% stake in Ohio Utica Shale assets for US$588 million in cash as part of a broader US$1.20 billion package that also includes upstream assets and midstream infrastructure.
  • At the same time, the company has expanded its natural gas and oil hedging program through 2026 and beyond, including substantial coverage of Ohio-Utica production, aiming to steady cash flows and underpin its capital program amid commodity price swings.
  • We’ll now examine how this expanded Ohio-Utica hedging program may reshape Northern Oil and Gas’ investment narrative and risk profile.

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Northern Oil and Gas Investment Narrative Recap

To own Northern Oil and Gas, you need to believe that its non‑operated shale model can keep converting acquisitions into sustainable cash flows, even as commodity prices swing and inventories mature. The expanded Ohio‑Utica hedging program directly addresses the near term risk of price volatility affecting cash generation, but it does not remove the longer term concern that deal driven growth could misfire through overpaying or integration missteps.

Among recent announcements, the refinancing of its reserves‑based credit facility and new senior notes stands out next to this Utica deal, because it refreshes liquidity and extends maturities as the company layers on new assets and hedges. That combination may matter for how resilient Northern’s capital program proves if commodity prices stay choppy or if acquired volumes underperform expectations.

Yet while this all sounds reassuring, investors still need to weigh the risk that heavy reliance on acquisitions for growth could...

Read the full narrative on Northern Oil and Gas (it's free!)

Northern Oil and Gas' narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $240.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% yearly revenue growth and a $368.6 million earnings decrease from $608.7 million today.

Uncover how Northern Oil and Gas' forecasts yield a $30.70 fair value, a 40% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community see fair value for Northern Oil and Gas anywhere from US$30.70 to US$20,826.44, underscoring just how far apart individual expectations can be. Against that backdrop, the expanded Ohio‑Utica hedging program reshapes how you might think about commodity price risk and the stability of future cash flows, so it is worth exploring several of these viewpoints before deciding how it fits into your portfolio.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Northern Oil and Gas - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.