The Tin Industry Branch issued a proposal: The irrational rise in tin prices has had an impact on the industrial chain supply chain and called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on December 23, the Tin Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and the Electronic Solder Materials Branch of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association jointly issued a proposal stating that the irrational rise in tin prices has had an impact on the supply chain of the industrial chain. As an important strategic metal, tin's market stability is of profound significance to many sectors of the national economy. As an indispensable basic raw material for key industries such as electronic welding, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, green tinning, and national defense and military industry, the supply safety and price stability of tin are directly related to the stability and competitiveness of China's industrial chain. In order to better maintain market order and create a stable market environment, all parties in the market are called upon to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, avoid blindly following the trend, objectively judge market conditions, raise risk awareness, jointly create a healthy and rational market environment, resist speculation that violates the objective laws of the market, work together to guide prices back to a reasonable range, and improve a long-term and stable market mechanism.

The original text is as follows:

Proposals

Recently, tin prices have repeatedly reached new highs due to multiple factors such as the extension of the six-month ban on artisanal mining of tin and other metals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), ongoing local M23 clashes, and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar mining areas. Since December 2025, the cumulative increase of Renxi has reached 11.5%, Shanghai and tin have increased by more than 13%, and in just half a month, each ton of tin has risen by more than 40,000 yuan! Among them, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin futures contract price in March and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Shanghai-tin main contract continued to rise strongly. The highest prices broke through 43,000 US dollars/ton and 348,000 yuan/ton respectively, both of which hit new phased highs.

The current rapid rise in tin prices has completely deviated from the fundamentals of the industry. From the supply side, supply from major producers such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Myanmar has gradually improved and stabilized recently. Among them, the monthly export volume of tin ore in Wa has risen steadily to nearly 1,000 tons; domestic tin smelting companies have released sufficient production capacity, with refined tin production reaching 189,000 tons in January-November, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year; LME tin stocks and SHFE tin stocks have not shown signs of tension, and the total inventory volume of the two markets has remained stable at 10,000 tons. Overall, the industry is running smoothly. On the demand side, although demand in emerging fields such as photovoltaics, automotive electronics, and AI continued to grow this year, demand performance in traditional tinned plates, chemicals and other fields is stable. Global tin consumption is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, which is about 0.5 percentage points lower than the production growth rate, and total demand has yet to show strong growth. Affected by the slowdown in overseas demand, the global fine tin supply and demand pattern still shows an oversupply of about 10,000 tons. The rapid rise in prices in this round is more a result of market sentiment and capital drive.

At this stage, the irrational rise in prices has had an impact on the industrial chain supply chain. Although upstream companies seem to benefit from higher prices in the short term, sharp price fluctuations also disrupt their production arrangements, inventory control, and long-term investment decisions. For downstream tin companies, such as solder, tinplate, chemical industries, etc., the sharp rise in costs has put heavy pressure on them. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have already fallen into the dilemma of “not being able to buy raw materials and afraid to accept orders”. It is difficult to fulfill long-term contracts, and product quality stability has also been challenged. For downstream users in the electronics manufacturing industry, the situation is even more difficult. As the main consumer of tin-based solders, in the face of the current rare “sharp rise in tin prices,” the costs of PCB manufacturing, semiconductor packaging, etc. have risen sharply, and corporate profits have been seriously eroded. Small and medium-sized electronics manufacturers, on the other hand, have fallen into the dilemma of being squeezed at both ends (the price of front-end raw materials has skyrocketed, making it difficult to quickly raise the price of terminal products), and their living space has been severely compressed. The rapid rise in tin prices, driven by this round of capital, has seriously amplified market risks and caused significant damage to the healthy development of the global industrial chain supply chain.

In the long run, sharp price fluctuations pose a serious threat to the high-quality development of the tin industry. On the one hand, inflated prices will inevitably be difficult to maintain. In the future, once capital declines, prices will plummet in a cliff-style manner. This roller coaster market will impact the entire industry chain for the second time. On the other hand, price signals are distorted due to speculation, making it impossible to allocate resources effectively. Companies use their energy to game market fluctuations and keep their perspective away from technological innovation, process upgrading, and green transformation. The vicious cycle of sharp price increases and falls will eventually weaken the overall resilience of the tin industry to risks, and is not conducive to building a safe, stable, and resilient modern industrial system.

As an important strategic metal, tin's market stability is of profound significance to many sectors of the national economy. As an indispensable basic raw material for key industries such as electronic welding, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, green tinning, and national defense and military industry, the supply safety and price stability of tin are directly related to the stability and competitiveness of China's industrial chain. In order to better maintain market order and create a stable market environment, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Industry Association and the Electronic Materials Solder Branch of the China Electronics Industry Association jointly call on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, not blindly follow the trend, objectively judge market conditions, raise risk awareness, jointly create a healthy and rational market environment, resist speculative behavior that violates the objective laws of the market, and work together to guide prices back to a reasonable range and improve the long-term and stable market mechanism!

China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch

China Electronic Materials Industry Association Electronic Solder Materials Branch

December 22, 2025

This article was selected from the WeChat account “China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Tin Branch”, Zhitong Finance Editor: Xu Wenqiang.