Judges Scientific plc (LON:JDG) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 25% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 34% over that time.
After such a large jump in price, Judges Scientific may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.5x, since almost half of all companies in the United Kingdom have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Judges Scientific's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Judges Scientific
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Judges Scientific's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 14%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 5.5% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 3.5% as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 19% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it concerning that Judges Scientific is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
Shares in Judges Scientific have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Judges Scientific's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Judges Scientific, and understanding should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Judges Scientific, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.