Open source securities: Space computing power is expected to drive changes in the commercial space industry Reusable rockets are the key to large-scale applications

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that policy and industry collaboration is driving China's commercial aerospace to a new inflection point. According to Starcloud's calculation method, the bank estimates that the operating cost of China's ultimate space computing power may be only 1/12 of the ground, with significant economic value. The bank believes that “counting days in days” will be the first to be implemented; with the maturity of industrial technology, “land counting in days” is expected to eventually achieve a closed commercial loop. Achieving large-scale applications in commercial space is highly dependent on low-cost, high-frequency launch capabilities, and reusable rockets are the key; against the launch price and launch frequency of the Falcon 9 rocket, the bank believes that in 2030, China is expected to achieve 100 launches per year, with a single cost of about 100 million yuan, and the annual output value of rocket launches and satellite manufacturing is expected to reach 85 billion yuan.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Policy and industry collaboration pushes China's commercial aerospace to a new inflection point

Currently, policy and industry collaboration is driving China's commercial space into a new stage of development: at the policy level. In November 2025, the “National Space Administration's Action Plan to Promote the High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)” was officially released, the country established a commercial space department, and Beijing simultaneously released a three-stage space data center construction blueprint. At the technical level, Suzake-3 successfully completed vertical recycling tests. The first flight of Long March 12A is imminent, and many companies are intensively promoting test flights of recyclable rockets. At the capital level, leading domestic and foreign companies such as SpaceX, Blue Rocket Aerospace, and Tianbing Technology all plan to advance the IPO process in 2026, which is expected to form a new pattern of accelerated resonance between industry and capital.

Space computing power is expected to drive China's commercial space to achieve the ultimate commercial closed loop

The number of Chinese low-orbit satellites planned is high, but the launch progress is slow. Apart from being constrained by high launch costs and limited capacity, the bank believes that the deeper problem is that a closed economic loop has not yet formed. Currently, SpaceX's commercial closed loop mainly relies on Starlink broadband services and direct smartphone communication, and it is difficult for China to replicate this path: well-developed domestic terrestrial communication networks weaken users' willingness to pay, access to European and American markets is limited, and the size and payment capacity of the “Belt and Road” countries are limited. Space computing power has provided a new development path for the closed loop of China's commercial space economy. As launch costs decrease and in-orbit computing power increases, future space computing power may form a “multiple development and multiple provinces” pattern. According to Starcloud's calculation method, the bank estimates that the operating cost of China's ultimate space computing power may be only 1/12 of the ground, with significant economic value. The bank believes that “counting days in days” will be the first to be implemented; with the maturity of industrial technology, “land counting in days” is expected to eventually achieve a closed commercial loop.

China's commercial space launch and manufacturing output value is expected to reach 85 billion yuan in 2030

Achieving large-scale applications in commercial space is highly dependent on low-cost, high-frequency launch capabilities, and reusable rockets are the key. At present, China's recyclable rockets have entered the engineering verification stage. The Blue Rocket Space Suzake-3 and Long March 12A multi-type rockets have been intensively tested. It is expected that the next three years will enter the initial stage of commercialization of “side-launch, side-iteration.” At the same time, the first phase of the Hainan commercial space launch site was put into operation and the second phase was expanded to speed up the completion of the shortcomings in launch infrastructure. The bank believes that with the iteration of technology and the improvement of supporting facilities, space computing power and other emerging applications are expected to drive commercial space to usher in industrial transformation with large-scale commercial value. Based on the launch price and frequency of the Falcon 9 rocket, the bank believes that in 2030, China is expected to achieve 100 launches per year, with a single cost of about 100 million yuan, and the annual output value of rocket launches and satellite manufacturing is expected to reach 85 billion yuan.

Beneficial targets

(1) Commercial rockets: Chaojie Co., Ltd., Sirui New Materials, Aerospace Propulsion, Guanglian Airlines, Platinum, Western Materials, Parker New Materials, Aerospace Technology, Aerospace Huanyu; (2) Satellite payloads: China Satellite, Guobo Electronics, Zhenlei Technology, Aerospace Electronics, Chengdu HuaWei, Shanghai Hanxun, Shaanxi Huada, Yaguang Technology, Zhimingda; (3) Downstream applications: Haige Communications, Zhongke Star Map, Mengsheng Electronics, Electronics Digital.

Risk warning: Follow-up promotion of support policies falls short of expectations; progress in key technologies such as reusable rockets falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.