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How MSCI’s Crypto-Treasury Index Proposal Could Reshape Its Recurring Revenue and Risk Profile (MSCI)

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Earlier in October 2025, MSCI proposed excluding companies whose digital assets make up at least 50% of total assets from its Global Investable Market Indexes, a move that could affect 39 firms with about US$113.00 billions in market value and trigger US$10.00–US$15.00 billions in passive outflows.
  • This potential reshaping of benchmark eligibility has sparked criticism that MSCI’s approach could narrow index representativeness and push capital away from listed crypto-heavy balance sheets toward more tightly regulated vehicles.
  • We’ll now examine how the proposed exclusion of high crypto-treasury firms could influence MSCI’s recurring revenue thesis and risk profile.

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MSCI Investment Narrative Recap

To own MSCI, you generally need to believe in the resilience of its high-margin, recurring index and analytics revenues and in ongoing demand for its benchmarks from ETF and institutional clients. The crypto-treasury exclusion proposal touches that core franchise but, in the near term, looks more like a reputational and policy risk than a material change to MSCI’s main revenue drivers, with the key catalyst still being asset-based fee growth tied to global ETF usage.

The most relevant recent announcement here is MSCI’s launch of the All Country Public + Private Equity Index, which extends its index footprint into private assets while staying focused on institutional asset-allocation needs. Set beside the proposed crypto-treasury exclusions, it underlines how MSCI’s short term catalysts remain rooted in broadening its benchmark toolkit into areas like private markets where fee compression and index representativeness will remain front of mind.

Yet behind this apparent technical rule change, investors should be aware of how competitive pressure in indexing could interact with...

Read the full narrative on MSCI (it's free!)

MSCI's narrative projects $3.8 billion revenue and $1.6 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.5% yearly revenue growth and roughly a $0.4 billion earnings increase from $1.2 billion today.

Uncover how MSCI's forecasts yield a $657.56 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MSCI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
MSCI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see MSCI’s fair value between US$528 and US$686, highlighting how far opinions can spread. Set against this, the reliance on ETF-linked asset based fees and the risk of fee compression makes it especially important to weigh several different viewpoints on MSCI’s longer term earnings power.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on MSCI - why the stock might be worth as much as 21% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MSCI Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your MSCI research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free MSCI research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MSCI's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.