Guoxin Securities: The wind power industry at home and abroad is expected to usher in economic resonance, demand and pattern changes spawn new opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that onshore wind power achieved rapid cost reduction through large-scale expansion and technological iteration, and installed capacity exceeded expectations, but the internal volume of the mainframe process was reduced and profits were reduced. In 2025, prices were restored, profitability improved, and overseas orders exploded. After offshore wind power installation was sluggish due to approval and other factors, the commencement of major projects in 2025 boosted the restoration of prosperity.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

“14th Five-Year Plan” wind power industry recovery: land wind quickly cuts costs, opens up installed space, grows while exploring sea breezes and sees the sun

Since 2021, China's onshore wind power has fully entered the era of affordability. The wind power industry has achieved rapid cost reduction through large-scale expansion and technological iteration, and the installed capacity of the industry continues to exceed expectations. However, internal competition in the hosting sector has greatly reduced the profit margin of the industrial chain, and the industry has experienced a phenomenon where profits are not increased incrementally. Prices in the landwind industry chain have continued to recover since the second half of 2024, and the profitability of the industry improved to a certain extent while shipments increased in 2025. With the rapid growth of landwind tenders in overseas emerging market regions, the overseas orders obtained by Chinese hosting companies have achieved explosive growth due to their advantages in price, service, and localization. In terms of offshore wind power, the installed capacity of China's Ocean Wind continued to be sluggish in 2021-2024 due to the comprehensive approval schedule falling short of expectations. Major regional projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong started in 2025, and industry prosperity recovered significantly.

2026 onshore wind power outlook: the steady increase in domestic air volume is expected to continue, and the export market will drive significant profit growth

In line with China's onshore wind power approval and tendering trends in 2024-2025, the bank expects new domestic installed capacity to reach 120 GW in 2026, an increase of 10% over the previous year, and another record high. Prices in the industrial chain have good support, mainframe profits have been drastically restored, and operating leverage in the parts sector is remarkable. In 2024-2030, the CAGR of the new installed capacity of Lu Feng in the emerging market is expected to reach 17%. Combined with the low penetration rate base of domestic fans, domestic mainframe companies' export profits are expected to increase dramatically in the next few years, becoming the most important growth driver for the industry. The localization rate of wind power main gearboxes and spindle bearings has been further increased, and the market supply capacity of enterprises such as Delijia, Power Transmission, and Xinqianglian has increased; the trend of “forging and casting” spindles continues; the application of sliding bearings in gearboxes continues to be promoted to optimize the industry's ability to continuously reduce costs and increase efficiency.

2026 offshore wind power outlook: construction commencement and tenders are expected to be implemented intensively, and Shenzhen Ocean opens up a long-term ceiling

The domestic offshore wind power market is expected to increase to 11-15GW in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. In 2026, China will usher in the first year of national management project development, so the country's new offshore wind installation is expected to reach 70-100 GW throughout the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. In terms of domestic orders, the national offshore fan tender is expected to reach 15-20 GW in 2026, another record high. The overseas sea wind market will achieve steady growth in orders and construction demand in 2026, and the overall supply of European submarine cables and pipe piles is tight. From the analysis of equipment requirements, the global ocean wind trend towards “dark blue” is driving an increase in demand for submarine cables and pipe piles. Among them, the share of 500kV AC and DC submarine cable tenders is expected to increase rapidly, benefiting leading companies. Pipeline racks and floating foundations for deep-sea applications are gradually being used commercially, benefiting manufacturing enterprises with advantages in terminals and production capacity.

Investment advice

Looking ahead to 2026, the global wind power industry will usher in a new development dividend period, and the sector's performance growth is highly certain. The main engine section focuses on [Goldwind Technology], [Yunda Co., Ltd.], and [Sany Heavy Energy]; the parts section focuses on [Delijia] and [Jinlei Co., Ltd.], and the Haifeng section focuses on [Daikin Heavy Industries], [Haili Wind Power], and [Dongfang Cable].

Risk Alerts

Domestic and foreign installed demand fell short of expectations; major changes in new energy policies; prices of major raw materials rose sharply; industry competition intensified, and profit levels fell short of expectations.