WEBULL

Assessing NOV’s Valuation After Barclays’ Target Hike and Brighter Wall Street Outlook

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Barclays just nudged its outlook on NOV (NOV) higher by lifting its target while keeping a cautious stance, and that shift, echoed by other Wall Street upgrades, has quietly pulled more eyes to the stock.

See our latest analysis for NOV.

That slightly brighter backdrop lines up with NOV’s recent trading pattern. A 90 day share price return of about 21% contrasts with a still modest 1 year total shareholder return of roughly 15%, suggesting momentum is building but not yet euphoric.

If this shift in sentiment has your attention, it could be a good time to explore other energy equipment and services names via aerospace and defense stocks as potential complementary ideas.

But with analysts nudging targets higher, the shares still trading at a sizable modeled intrinsic discount, and only modest long term returns on the board, is NOV a timely value opportunity, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.1% Undervalued

With NOV closing at $15.66 versus a narrative fair value of about $16.33, the story builds in a modest upside driven by sector tailwinds.

Anticipated acceleration in offshore oil and gas activity beginning in 2026, with deepwater projects increasingly becoming the incremental source of global production, is expected to drive significant demand for NOV's high-spec drilling and production technologies, which would position the company for revenue and margin growth as project backlogs convert. The global rollout of unconventional resource development (outside North America) requires large-scale infrastructure and advanced drilling equipment, providing NOV with expanded market opportunities as international E&Ps replicate shale success. This would likely lead to higher equipment and aftermarket sales.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, rising margins, and a richer earnings multiple can still point to upside from here? The narrative spells out the math.

Result: Fair Value of $16.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained margin pressure from tariffs and weaker North American drilling, along with delayed offshore project approvals, could easily derail this still cautious upside narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this NOV narrative.

Build Your Own NOV Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or would rather rely on your own checks and assumptions, you can build a fresh view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your NOV research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before NOV’s story moves on without you, consider exploring fresh opportunities by using the Simply Wall St Screener to surface high conviction stocks that match your strategy.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.