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The Bull Case For eBay (EBAY) Could Change Following EU €3 Low-Value Parcel Customs Duty

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Earlier in December, the European Union agreed to introduce a €3 customs duty per item on low-value e-commerce parcels under €150 from July 2026, a move aimed at bolstering local retailers against global online marketplaces like eBay.
  • At the same time, eBay has been promoting its marketplace strengths through initiatives like the “Built to Spec” Pete Davidson collaboration and fresh data highlighting strong engagement in collectibles and parts & accessories, underscoring how much of its appeal depends on cross-border and enthusiast-driven commerce.
  • We’ll now examine how the EU’s new low-value customs duty could influence eBay’s growth-focused marketplace narrative and longer-term risk balance.

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eBay Investment Narrative Recap

To own eBay, you need to believe its focus categories like collectibles and auto parts can offset slower growth elsewhere while management improves the buyer experience. The EU’s new €3 low‑value customs duty looks like an incremental headwind to cross border GMV rather than a thesis changing event, but it does add to the near term risk around international growth, where softer macro conditions and regulatory pressure are already key watchpoints.

The “Built to Spec: Pete Davidson” program matters here because it highlights exactly the kind of enthusiast and parts & accessories demand that often relies on cross border shipping and price sensitive buyers. If higher landed costs in Europe make some of these purchases less attractive, it could modestly blunt one of eBay’s most important growth levers at the margin, even as management continues to emphasize collectibles momentum and vertical initiatives as its core catalyst set.

But against that growth story, investors should also be aware of the risk that exceptional collectibles and trading card strength could...

Read the full narrative on eBay (it's free!)

eBay's narrative projects $12.3 billion revenue and $2.3 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how eBay's forecasts yield a $93.97 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

EBAY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
EBAY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see eBay’s fair value between US$63.45 and US$116.05, a wide spread of independent views. Set against that, eBay’s reliance on a relatively narrow set of fast growing categories for GMV expansion raises important questions about how resilient those valuations might be if momentum in collectibles and parts & accessories cools, so it is worth comparing several perspectives before deciding how you see the balance.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on eBay - why the stock might be worth 23% less than the current price!

Build Your Own eBay Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your eBay research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free eBay research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate eBay's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.