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Northern Virginia Housing Market Poised for Balance in 2026

PR Newswire · 1d ago

Moderating price growth, steady mortgage rates, and rising inventory signal a more stable year ahead

FAIRFAX, Va., Dec. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Northern Virginia housing market will continue to find balance in 2026, with moderate price increases, interest rates that hover around 6%, and slightly higher levels of inventory, according to a NEW economic housing forecast released by the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® in conjunction with George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis.

After several years of volatility, the forecast points to a more measured pace of activity that benefits both buyers and sellers, even as affordability remains a persistent challenge for many households.

"The Northern Virginia market is entering a more stable phase," said NVAR CEO Ryan McLaughlin. "While affordability pressures continue, the fundamentals of our region — strong employment, a diverse economy, and sustained demand — position us well for a year of steady, sustainable growth."

Home prices are projected to rise at a moderate rate in 2026, reflecting continued demand alongside a gradual increase in available inventory. While this additional supply should ease some competitive pressures, affordability is expected to remain a key concern, particularly for first-time buyers and middle-income households.

"As inventory grows and price increases become more measured, we're seeing conditions that are more conducive to informed decision-making," McLaughlin added. "Buyers and sellers alike will benefit from doing their research, understanding local market dynamics, and working with real estate professionals to navigate a more balanced landscape."

Mortgage rates are forecast to remain relatively stable, hovering around six percent throughout much of the year. This consistency should provide greater predictability for consumers, even if borrowing costs remain higher than the historic lows seen earlier in the decade.

"Northern Virginia's housing market stands out in its resilience, reflecting underlying demand among households for homeownership, which remains a solid long-term investment for NOVA households," said Terry Clower, Ph.D., Director of the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis. "The regional housing market may have pulled back from its frenetic pace of the past few years, but prices will remain stable, and we will see a healthier balance between buyers and sellers in 2026."

The 2026 forecast comes amid some uncertainty following the recent federal government shutdown, which may have affected housing activity in certain areas, though the full impact is not yet known. What is clear, however, is that housing supply is increasing, with more homes coming onto the market. As conditions continue to evolve, buyers and sellers should remain prepared, plan thoughtfully, and keep expectations grounded in current market realities.

"Northern Virginia remains a desirable place to live, work, and invest," McLaughlin said. "As the market finds its footing, those who approach it with solid information and a long-term outlook will be best positioned for success."

NVAR's 2026 Housing Forecast includes Alexandria City and Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Stafford, and Prince William Counties. Below is data for each jurisdiction.

Forecast by Jurisdiction

Fairfax County 

  • Single family homes prices are expected to rise 1.9% from 2025 to 2026.
  • Average monthly unit sales for single family homes are forecast to increase 8.4% from 2025 to 2026, suggestive of a more active market in 2026 as inventory levels are forecast to increase 35.8% and buyers have more options.
  • The median sales price for townhomes is forecast to rise 1.7% from 2025 to 2026.
  • While townhome inventory is forecast to increase 30.4%, demand is forecast to remain steady with townhome unit sales increasing 4.3%.
  • Condominium prices are forecast to decline 2.7% despite a 2.4% increase in unit sales.

Arlington County

  • The median price of sold single family homes is forecast to rise 3.8% from 2025 to 2026.
  • The number of single-family unit sales are forecast to rise a modest 1.1% while inventory rises 27.8%.
  • The median sales price of townhomes is forecast to increase 1.9% from 2025 to 2026.
  • While townhome inventory is forecast to increase 20.8% from 2025 to 2026, the number of units is relatively modest, and demand is forecast to remain stable with the number of townhomes sales forecast to increase 1.4% from 2025 to 2026.
  • Condo prices in Arlington are forecast to increase 2.1% from 2025 to 2025.
  • As with other segments of the market, increased inventory is forecast to be met with stable demand as the number of condo sales is forecast to increase 1.3%

Alexandria City

  • The median sales price of single family homes in Alexandria is forecast to increase 4.2% from 2025 to 2026.
  • While single family inventory is forecast to increase, demand is forecast to remain stable with a 4.5% increase in single family unit sales.
  • The median sales price of townhomes in Alexandria is forecast to rise 2.5% from 2025 to 2026.
  • Demand for townhomes is forecast to remain stable, with the unit sales of townhomes forecast to increase 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, despite an increase in inventory of 21.9%.
  • The median price of sold condos in Alexandria is forecast to increase a modest 1.1% from 2025 to 2026.
  • While Inventory is forecast to increase 30.3%, demand is forecast to remain steady with the number of condo sales forecast to increase 4.6%.

Prince William County

  • The median sales price of single family homes in Prince William is forecast to remain effectively flat, declining 0.2% from 2025 to 2026.
  • The number of unit sales of single family homes is forecast to increase 3.0%, indicative of greater market activity.
  • The median price of townhomes is forecast to rise 1.9% from 2025 to 2026, as buyers continue to balance attainability with affordability.
  • The number of townhome sales in Prince William is forecast to rise 4.7% from 2025 to 2026 as market activity picks up.
  • Median prices of sold condos in Prince William is forecast to increase a modest 1.5% from 2025 to 2026.
  • While condo inventory is forecast to increase 31.1% from 2025 to 2026, sales are anticipated to increase a modest 1.8%, consistent with broader market movement.

Loudoun County

  • The median price of sold single family homes in Loudoun County is forecast to increase 3.3% from 2025 to 2026.
  • The number of sold single family homes in Loudoun County is forecast to increase 7.6% as demand remains strong despite an increase in inventory of 36.2%.
  • The median price of sold townhomes in Loudoun County is forecast to increase 2.5% from 2025 to 2026.
  • Demand for Loudoun County townhomes is anticipated to remain strong, with the number of sales increasing 2.0% despite an increase in townhome inventory of 36.4%.
  • The median price of condos in Loudoun County are forecast to increase 1.6%, with unit sales increase a modest 0.3% while inventory rises 16.7%.

Stafford County

  • The median price of sold single family homes in Stafford County is forecast to decline a modest 4.6%.
  • As demand wanes in Stafford County, the number of sold single family homes is forecast to decline 2.4% as inventory increases 33.3%
  • The median price of townhomes in Stafford County is forecast to increase 2.8% in Stafford County as buyers search for affordability.
  • The number of townhome sales is forecast to increase 7.6% from 2025 to 2026 as inventory rises 31.5%, indicative of buyers looking for affordable options.

About NVAR

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR) serves as the voice of real estate in the Greater Northern Virginia Region. NVAR is dedicated to enhancing Realtor® success by delivering exceptional value, driving innovation, and impacting the industry. Headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia, with a new Member Experience Center located in Loudoun County, NVAR supports its 13,000 members with essential resources, including industry education, advocacy, networking, and professional development opportunities. The Association is committed to promoting ethical practices and excellence in real estate. It advocates on behalf of homebuyers, sellers, renters, and commercial tenants who are directly affected by local, state, and federal policy decisions impacting affordability, property rights, and quality of life. NVAR strives to elevate the standards of the real estate industry and to contribute to the overall growth and prosperity of the Washington DC Metropolitan Area and beyond. nvar.com.

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SOURCE Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR)