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VinFast (NasdaqGS:VFS) Valuation Check as New Indonesia EV Factory Accelerates Global Expansion Strategy

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

VinFast Auto (VFS) just flipped the switch on its first Southeast Asian factory outside Vietnam, a new EV plant in Subang, Indonesia, that anchors local production and after sales support for the domestic market.

See our latest analysis for VinFast Auto.

Even with the Indonesia plant signaling serious global ambitions, VinFast’s 1 year total shareholder return of about minus 16 percent and 3 year total shareholder return near minus 66 percent show long term holders are still waiting for momentum to really turn.

If this kind of EV expansion has your attention, it could be a good moment to compare VinFast with other auto manufacturers that are also competing for the next wave of demand.

With shares down sharply over the past year yet still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, is VinFast now a misunderstood emerging EV player at a bargain price, or is the market already discounting its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 46.4% Undervalued

With VinFast closing at 3.41 dollars versus a most popular narrative fair value of 6.36 dollars, the valuation gap hinges on ambitious future profitability.

In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 69.8x on those 2028 earnings, up from -2.6x today. This future PE is greater than the current PE for the US Auto industry at 18.1x.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious why an early stage, loss making EV maker is being modeled with a premium profit multiple and sharply rising margins? See the full narrative assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $6.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent cash burn and limited global brand traction could delay profitability and force fresh capital raises that undercut the bullish valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this VinFast Auto narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

On a simple price-to-sales lens, VinFast looks stretched. The stock trades around 3.1 times sales versus 0.7 times for the US auto sector and a fair ratio near 0.1 times, suggesting investors are already paying up for growth that may take years to prove out. Is this a contrarian opportunity or a value trap in the making?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:VFS PS Ratio as at Dec 2025
NasdaqGS:VFS PS Ratio as at Dec 2025

Build Your Own VinFast Auto Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your VinFast Auto research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.