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The Bull Case For Indivior (INDV) Could Change Following New SUBLOCADE Fentanyl-User Efficacy Data

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Indivior PLC recently reported positive randomized, double-blind clinical trial results showing that both 100-mg and 300-mg monthly maintenance doses of SUBLOCADE® reduced opioid use and supported abstinence in people with moderate-to-severe opioid use disorder, without new safety signals.
  • A key insight from the post-hoc analyses was that the 300-mg monthly dose outperformed the 100-mg dose in participants with high-frequency fentanyl use, underlining SUBLOCADE®’s potential relevance for higher-risk opioid use patterns.
  • We’ll now examine how these SUBLOCADE® trial findings, particularly the stronger effect in frequent fentanyl users, influence Indivior’s investment narrative.

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What Is Indivior's Investment Narrative?

To own Indivior, you have to believe in the durability of its opioid use disorder franchise, particularly SUBLOCADE, and in management’s ability to convert clinical and regulatory progress into consistent cash generation despite high debt and negative equity. The latest trial results, showing stronger outcomes for high-frequency fentanyl users, reinforce the core product story and could support future demand and pricing discussions, but the impact is more medium term than immediate. In the near term, the key catalysts still sit around execution on 2025 revenue guidance, uptake following the FDA label expansion, and the transition to a sole Nasdaq listing. The amended articles of association mainly tidy up governance for that shift, so they do not obviously change the risk profile, which still includes concentration in a single asset class and a rich earnings multiple.

However, there is one structural issue on the balance sheet that investors should not overlook. Indivior's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

INDV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
INDV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Three Simply Wall St Community fair value views span roughly US$32 to US$106 per share, showing how far apart individual models can be. Set against Indivior’s reliance on SUBLOCADE and elevated debt, this spread underlines why it can help to weigh multiple viewpoints before forming a view on the company’s resilience and execution risks.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Indivior - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Indivior Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.