At a time when the stock price reached a record high, analysts warned that Tesla (TSLA.US) valuation was out of touch: the automobile business was only worth $30, and AI and robots were the core support

The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, Tesla (TSLA.US) stock prices have continued to soar, but the current performance looks like a futuristic artificial intelligence giant, mainly due to its recent progress in the robot taxi sector. A closer look reveals that its core business of manufacturing and selling electric vehicles accounts for only a fraction of its market value.

“Tesla is increasingly being viewed as an autonomous driving and energy company,” Jed Dorsheimer, head of William Blair's energy research team, said in an interview.

“Dosseheimer's assessment of Tesla from an energy and infrastructure perspective points to a surprising disconnect in the company's valuation.” “The market is indeed weakening its automotive business, and in some of our published analyses, we have valued the business,” he said. “The business actually only accounts for about $30 to $40 (per share value).”

Tesla's stock price has been soaring recently. Over the past five trading days, its stock price has risen by more than 7% and hit a record high in yesterday's intraday session. Meanwhile, as investors digested weak labor data, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, while the Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 both fell.

Tesla's rise is driven by reports about it testing driverless robot taxis in Austin, Texas, and growing market belief that the company is successfully transforming from a struggling electric vehicle manufacturer to a giant in the field of autonomous driving.

According to Dorsey Hammer, the current stock price is almost entirely betting on things that have yet to be fully realized. He believes that the “transformation” is complete. In other words, the market's standard for judging Tesla is no longer how many electric vehicles it has delivered, but rather its progress in robotics and artificial intelligence.

According to the analysis, Dorsey Hammer estimates that autonomous driving technology now accounts for more than 70% of Tesla's total value. This includes the long-promised robot taxi platform and Optimus, the company's humanoid robot project.

“You're also seeing growth in the energy business, which is already worth as much as the automotive business, or maybe slightly higher than the automotive business,” Dorsey Hammer added. The view of this split valuation method suggests that if expectations for autonomous driving software and energy storage businesses are divested, the remaining car companies will be drastically discounted compared to current transaction levels.

This doubt is about execution. Although stock trading is often based on promises for the future, the company's recent revenue and profits are still largely dependent on the global electric vehicle market, which is facing increasing competition and regulatory resistance.

Just this week, California regulators questioned Tesla's “autonomous driving” marketing campaign and gave it a 90-day period to clarify or revise related statements. This is a reminder that the path to fully autonomous driving is fraught with legal and technical barriers. For investors buying at nearly $480 per share, there is very little room for fault tolerance. After many delays, if the robot taxi schedule is postponed again, the market may have to take a more careful look and re-examine the automobile business worth only $30 per share.

Dorsheimer remains optimistic about the long-term energy business prospects, pointing out that Tesla's energy business is an underappreciated driver of its future earnings.