Wanlian Securities: The high dividend style still has phased opportunities, and the banking sector still has allocation value

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that foreign policies are relaxed. In September 2025, the US once again began a cycle of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to global capital flows. Domestically, the policy of monetary and fiscal coordination to promote steady growth in 2026 is expected to be further strengthened, and the trend of liquidity easing will continue. The high dividend style still has phased opportunities. Taking into account the current dividend rate and valuation level of bank stocks, the bank believes that the banking sector still has allocation value.

The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:

Net profit growth rate improved in the first three quarters of 2025

The revenue growth rate of the 42 listed banks in the first three quarters of 2025 was 0.91% year-on-year, and the net profit growth rate to mother was 1.48%. The revenue growth rate declined month-on-month, and the net profit growth rate improved month-on-month. On the revenue side, fluctuations in the bond market had a certain drag on other non-interest income. The year-on-year growth rate of other non-interest income slowed, causing the overall revenue growth rate of listed banks to fluctuate slightly. However, benefiting from the narrowing of the decline in net interest income and a marked improvement in intermediate income, overall positive growth was achieved.

On the cost side, business and management expenses grew 0.34% year over year, credit impairment losses increased -1.9% year over year, and income tax grew 3.9% year over year. The growth rate of business and management expenses was lower than the revenue growth rate during the same period, and provisions continued to feed back profits. However, the decline in the increase in provision measures reduced the release of profits. In the first three quarters of 2025, the total assets of listed banks grew by 9.3% year on year, and scale expansion remained high.

In terms of net interest spreads, the bank estimates that the net interest spread of listed banks for the first three quarters was about 1.33%, down about 12BP from the previous year, and the decline in net interest spreads was narrowing. As of the end of 2025.3 Q3, the non-performing ratio of listed banks was 1.21%, down 2BP from month to month, and overall asset quality remained stable. The average provision coverage rate was 283.17%, down about 4.11 percentage points from month to month; loan ratio was 3.03%, down 5 BP from month to month.

2026 total policy may be moderately strengthened

The bank expects that against the backdrop of deepening effects of changes in the external environment and prominent contradictions between strong domestic supply and demand, the total volume policy may be moderately strengthened in 2026, and the broad fiscal deficit may rise slightly. The bank expects a phased recovery in overall financing requirements in 2026. Furthermore, expanding domestic demand in 2026 is the top priority task. Finance will continue to be moderately strengthened, and “internal rolling” competition will be thoroughly rectified at the enterprise level. It is expected that the contradiction between strong domestic supply and demand will ease in stages, and prices are expected to continue to stabilize.

The sector's performance will remain steady in 2026

The overall growth rate of the banking sector may decline slightly in 2026; considering current market interest rate levels and policy adjustment expectations, net interest spreads are expected to stabilize; in anticipation of a slight slowdown in scale growth and stabilization of net interest spreads, net interest income growth will pick up accordingly. On the income side, it may have maintained positive growth, benefiting from the continued recovery in wealth management related businesses and the increase in demand for settlement services after the overall recovery of the economy. Other non-interest income may still fluctuate due to the bond market. The overall quality of assets has remained stable. Currently, credit costs have declined to a low level, and the bank expects future provisions to contribute to performance. Taken together, overall revenue picked up in 2026, while the contribution of the provision plan to performance declined, bringing profit growth closer to revenue growth.