Cathay Pacific Haitong: Maintaining Nongfu Spring (09633) “Gain” Rating Target Price of HK$51.92

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that maintaining Nongfu Spring (09633) EPS of 1.35/1.62/1.91 yuan in 25-27 was given 35 times PE (25E), and the target price was HK$51.92 per share (calculated at the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar to RMB 0.91), maintaining the “gain” rating. Considering peak season sales, low base effect, and favorable prices for polyester bottles, we continue to be optimistic about 25H2's good performance.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Peak season sales + low base, optimistic about the acceleration of revenue performance in the second half of the year

The peak beverage season is concentrated in Q3 and generally shows peak sales during the peak season. Therefore, judging from the historical performance of '22 and '23, the year-on-year revenue growth rate in the second half of the year was accelerated compared to the first half of the year (in '24, the sales pace was abnormal due to internet incidents, which is not of reference significance). Furthermore, under a relatively normal base of 25H1 (24H1 revenue up 8.36% year on year), the company's revenue increased 15.6% year on year, and when entering 25H2, the bank expects growth performance to continue to accelerate in the second half of the year, and the annual revenue growth rate will remain above 15%, taking into account the low base benefits of the same period and the high sales characteristics of beverages during the peak season.

The price of polyester bottles continues to be favorable, and one-time investment in product promotion has been reduced, and confidence in profits is maintained

The main raw materials for beverages are polyester bottles. Judging from the price trend, the price of 25H2 (as of 12/17) polyester bottles fell 11.24% year on year and 3.73% month on month. Therefore, the bank expects the continued downward trend in polyester bottle prices to benefit the company's gross margin performance in the second half of the year. Furthermore, considering the increase in one-time sales expenses brought about by the company's Oriental Leaf product brand promotion activities during the Paris Olympics in the second half of '24, and the company did not invest much in related product promotion and marketing activities in the second half of '25, the bank continued to maintain good confidence in its profit performance in the second half of the year.

The maximum amount growth rate for new related transactions reflects good demand potential for some products

On December 17, 2025, the company disclosed the “Renewal of Continued Related Transactions” announcement. The company procures some bottle caps (such as screams), Yangshengdang Group products, and some fruit ingredients and beverage ingredients from the Yangseido Group and forms related transactions. Referring to the announcement, the maximum amounts in the latest procurement framework agreement for 26-28 were 4345/5.285/629.5 million yuan, respectively. If calculated based on the actual related transaction volume of 322.8 million yuan that occurred in the first 10 months of 25 years, the maximum year-on-year growth rate of the related transaction amount in 26-28 was 34.60%/21.63%/19.11%. The bank believes that the good growth rate of the company's related transactions also reflects the potential for strong future demand for some of the company's downstream products.