Zheshang Securities: Domestic large storage business model improves overseas demand and boom

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhishang Securities released a research report saying that global demand for energy storage has blossomed a bit. From January to November this year, the domestic energy storage tender scale reached 112 GW/364 GWh, an increase of 110%/161% over the previous year. Domestic energy storage capacity is expected to reach 264 GWh by 2026, an increase of 80% over the previous year. The explosive growth in computing power in North America has driven demand for electricity and storage to exceed expectations. Demand for energy storage terminals in the US is very rigid. It is estimated that in 2026, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US is expected to reach 63 GWh, an increase of 40% over the previous year. On the supply side, in January-October, China's total inverter exports reached US$7.436 billion, an increase of 6.38% over the previous year. Leading domestic companies have outstanding competitive advantages, and it is expected that they will continue to receive high-margin overseas orders in the future.

The main views of Zheshang Securities are as follows:

Demand side

Zheshang Securities pointed out that global demand for energy storage is blooming, and it is estimated that the world's new energy storage capacity will reach 271, 444, and 661 GW respectively in 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 64%, and 49%, respectively.

1) Domestic market: The full entry of new energy into the market is driving the price difference between peak and valley electricity. At the same time, many provinces have successively introduced capacity electricity price policies, the profit model for large storage has gradually been clarified and optimized, and energy storage demand has begun to shift from policy orientation to market orientation. Domestic energy storage tender data showed strong performance. From January to November of this year, the domestic energy storage tender scale reached 112 GW/364 GWh, an increase of 110%/161% over the previous year. Domestic energy storage capacity is expected to reach 264 GWh by 2026, an increase of 80% over the previous year.

2) US market: The explosive growth in computing power in North America is driving demand for electricity and storage distribution exceeding expectations. Demand for US energy storage terminals is very rigid. It is estimated that in 2026, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US is expected to reach 63 GWh, an increase of 40% over the previous year.

3) European market: Demand for large storage exploded, household storage was basically completed, shipments gradually returned to normal, and commercial storage began to expand. In 2026, Europe's new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 50 GWh, an increase of 43% over the previous year.

4) Australian market: The electricity market is volatile, and there is plenty of room for energy storage energy arbitrage. In the future, it is expected that the development of energy storage will be accelerated under the impetus of capacity investment plans and household storage subsidy programs.

Supply-side

1) Going overseas: Many domestic energy storage system integrators, battery cells, and other enterprises have deployed overseas. From January to September of this year, the total overseas energy storage cooperation between Chinese companies exceeded 19.6 GW/208.09 GWh, mainly in the Middle East, Australia, Europe and other regions. From January to October, China's total inverter exports reached US$7.436 billion, an increase of 6.38% over the previous year. Leading domestic companies have outstanding competitive advantages, and it is expected that they will continue to receive high-margin overseas orders in the future.

2) From price competition to value competition: The rapid development of independent energy storage will pay more attention to the performance of energy storage systems throughout the life cycle, and place higher demands on the hardware capabilities and transaction operation and maintenance capabilities of energy storage system equipment. Returning to the essence of value, system integrators with stronger hardware+software capabilities and better full-life cycle management capabilities are expected to win.

Recommended to follow

1) System integrators: Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH), Artes (688472.SH), Tianhe Solar (688599.SH), Nanwang Technology (), etc.; 2) PCS manufacturers: Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Deye (USD), Aero Energy (Sichuan), Shenghong (300693.SZ), Cox 688248.SH 605117.SH 688717.SH Da (002518.SZ), Kehua Data (002335.SZ), Goodway (688390.SH), Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), etc.; 3) Energy storage cell manufacturers: Ningde Era (300750.SZ,03750), Everweft Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), etc.; 4) Energy storage temperature control manufacturers: Invec (002837.SZ), Tongfei (300990.SZ), Shenling Environmental (301018. SZ) etc.

Risk Alerts

There is a risk that prices will continue to fall, the risk that energy storage support policies fall short of expectations, the risk of worsening international trade environment, the risk of increased industry competition, and the risk of large exchange rate fluctuations.