Western Securities 2026 lithium battery strategy: the inflection point of supply and demand has now gone overseas+solid state dance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Western Securities released a research report saying that domestic independent energy storage economy is showing, demand has exceeded expectations, and demand for large storage in Europe, America and emerging markets is booming. Demand for energy storage batteries is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in '26. Looking at the balance sheet of supply and demand, the supply and demand structure of lithium iron phosphate and other links is expected to improve markedly in 26 years. Under the trend of concentrated and high-end production capacity in the industry, the production capacity of leading manufacturers is even tighter. As small and medium-sized production capacity gradually withdraws, the profits of leading companies in the industry are expected to increase in anticipation of price increases. The growth rate of overseas power battery demand has reached an inflection point, and energy storage batteries have maintained a high demand boom. Furthermore, the three core issues of solid-state battery industrialization are expected to achieve continuous breakthroughs.

The main views of Western Securities are as follows:

The supply and demand pattern of lithium batteries is expected to completely reverse in 2026

Demand side: In terms of power, domestic electric vehicles have continued to improve, and Europe's new energy has seen a recovery in 25 years. It is expected that global power batteries will maintain steady growth in '26. In terms of energy storage, domestic independent energy storage is showing economy. Demand exceeds expectations. Demand for large storage in Europe, America and emerging markets is booming. Demand for energy storage batteries is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in '26.

Supply side: lithium carbonate prices have rebounded and material supply and demand have improved, and profitability is expected to gradually improve. Looking at the balance sheet of supply and demand, the supply and demand structure of lithium iron phosphate, anodes, lithium hexafluorophosphate, copper foil, etc. is expected to improve markedly in 26 years. Under the trend of concentrated and high-end production capacity in the industry, the production capacity of leading manufacturers is even tighter. As small and medium-sized production capacity gradually withdraws, the profits of leading companies in the industry are expected to increase in anticipation of price increases.

In terms of targets, we recommend Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ), Tianci Materials (002709.SZ), and it is recommended to focus on Tianji (002759.SZ), polyfluoride (002407.SZ), Hunan Yuneng (301358.SZ), Fulin Seiko (300432.SZ), and Wanrun Xinneng (688275.SH).

Overseas demand is booming, and the general trend of lithium batteries going overseas

The growth rate of overseas power battery demand reached an inflection point in 2026, energy storage batteries will maintain a high demand trend, and the lithium battery industry with leading production capacity is expected to take the lead in enjoying overseas expansion dividends. (1) Battery section: Recommended Ningde Era (300750.SZ,03750), Everweft Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ); 2) Material links: recommend Kodali (002850.SZ), Dangsheng Technology (300073.SZ), and Rongbai Technology (688005.SH), it is recommended to focus on Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Longpan Technology ( 603906.SH), Zhongwei Co., Ltd. (300919.SZ).

Continued breakthroughs in solid-state battery industrialization

In 2026, solid-state batteries are expected to continue to achieve breakthroughs on the three core issues of “material system innovation, solid-solid interface improvement, and manufacturing process optimization”. 1) Device side: It is recommended to focus on Pilot Intelligence (300450.SZ), Naknol (920522.BJ), Delong Laser (688170.SH), Tin Packaging Co., Ltd. (001332.SZ), Microconductive Nano (688147.SH); 2) Material side: It is recommended to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Xinneng (688778.SH), Shanghai Xiba (), and Huasheng Lithium (Dubai); 3) New 603200.SH 688353.SH Technology: Lithium metal is the long-term technology evolution direction on the negative side. It is recommended to focus on Yinglian (002846.SZ), Tiantie Technology (300587.SZ), and Zhongyi Technology (301150.SZ); chloro-iodine composite solid electrolytes have achieved a breakthrough in ionic conductivity. We recommend Dangsheng Technology, and it is recommended to focus on Boyuan Co., Ltd. (301617.SZ).

Consumer electronics ushered in a recovery, and emerging markets brought growth curves

Demand for laptops and smartphones has recovered, and commercialization breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, low-power IoT, AR/VR and spatial computing, and low-altitude economy have accelerated the large-scale implementation of emerging terminal markets such as AI+ end-side hardware, smart glasses, robots, drones, and eVTOL, opening up a second growth curve for the industry. We recommend Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH), Sunwoda (300207.SZ), and Haopeng Technology (001283.SZ) for consumer batteries.

Sales of new energy vehicles have maintained rapid growth, driving the rapid development of the charging pile industry

The “three-year multiplication” plan supports the development of the industry. It is optimistic about the growth of leading charging pile manufacturing and operation performance. It focuses on recommending Teruide (300001.SZ) and Bull Group (603195.SH), focusing on Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ), Youyou Green Energy (301590.SZ), Tonghe Technology (300491.SZ), Wall Nuclear Materials (002130.SZ), Yonggui Electric (300351.SZ), Green Energy Huicheng (600212.SH).

Risk Alerts

New technology industrialization progress falls short of expectations; downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; raw material prices fluctuate; risk of related calculation deviations