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Does November’s Coal Slump and Chemical Surge Reshape the Bull Case for China Coal Energy (SEHK:1898)?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In November 2025, China Coal Energy reported a year-on-year 15.7% decline in commercial coal sales volumes, alongside weaker coal production, while its ammonium nitrate operations recorded very large growth in both output and sales.
  • This contrast highlights how the company’s growing chemicals segment is becoming more important as coal volumes respond to changing market conditions and operational pressures.
  • We’ll now examine how November’s coal volume decline, despite strong ammonium nitrate growth, may influence China Coal Energy’s broader investment narrative.

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China Coal Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To own China Coal Energy, you need to be comfortable with a coal focused group that is trying to grow its chemicals and related businesses while facing policy and pricing pressure on core coal. November’s 15.7% drop in commercial coal sales looks relevant for near term earnings sensitivity, but the strong ammonium nitrate growth does not yet offset the key risk that coal volumes and prices could remain under pressure.

The most relevant recent announcement alongside November’s data is the October update for the nine months of 2025, which showed RMB 110,584.32 million of revenue and RMB 12,484.63 million of net income. That context helps frame how a single month of weaker coal volumes, even with faster growing chemicals, feeds into the bigger question of whether China Coal Energy’s heavy capex and coal exposure can still support earnings and cash returns.

Yet against steady past earnings, investors should be aware that concentrated exposure to thermal coal amid shifting energy policy could...

Read the full narrative on China Coal Energy (it's free!)

China Coal Energy's narrative projects CN¥164.9 billion revenue and CN¥16.3 billion earnings by 2028. This implies a 1.2% yearly revenue decline and an earnings decrease of about CN¥0.9 billion from CN¥17.2 billion today.

Uncover how China Coal Energy's forecasts yield a HK$10.22 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

SEHK:1898 1-Year Stock Price Chart
SEHK:1898 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Three Simply Wall St Community estimates place China Coal Energy’s fair value between HK$8.00 and HK$13.89, showing wide disagreement among private investors. You can weigh those views against the risk that heavy coal exposure and sector wide energy transition policies may pressure long term revenues and asset utilisation, and then explore how different assumptions might change your view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on China Coal Energy - why the stock might be worth 22% less than the current price!

Build Your Own China Coal Energy Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.