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What Cigna Group (CI)'s Rising Medical Costs And Securities Probe Mean For Shareholders

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Recently, BofA Securities highlighted The Cigna Group’s exposure to commercial health insurance and its scaled pharmaceutical platform, while Levi & Korsinsky began investigating potential federal securities law violations following Cigna’s disclosure of a higher Healthcare medical cost ratio that could pressure future profitability.
  • This combination of optimism around pharmacy-driven earnings growth and scrutiny of rising medical costs underscores the tension between Cigna’s long-term potential and near-term regulatory and profitability risks.
  • We’ll now examine how the securities investigation tied to rising medical costs could reshape Cigna’s investment narrative for long-term investors.

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Cigna Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cigna today, you need to believe its Evernorth pharmacy platform and commercial insurance scale can offset mounting cost and regulatory pressures. The jump in Cigna Healthcare’s medical cost ratio and the resulting securities investigation directly touch the biggest near term risk: profitability compression in a business already under affordability scrutiny. While the stock’s sharp drop reflects immediate concern, BofA’s constructive view on the pharmacy platform suggests the core long term earnings engine has not been fundamentally altered by this single quarter.

The most relevant recent development is Cigna’s Q3 2025 earnings release, which paired higher Healthcare medical costs with continued contribution from Evernorth and updated 2026 EPS guidance. That mix of resilient pharmacy driven earnings power and pressured insurance margins is central to the current investment story, because it tests whether Cigna’s higher margin health services can consistently offset volatility in medical costs. How management responds through pricing, benefit design and cost controls could influence how investors view both risk and upside over the next few years.

Yet behind Cigna’s long term pharmacy opportunity, the rising medical cost ratio and related legal scrutiny are risks investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Cigna Group (it's free!)

Cigna Group's narrative projects $299.7 billion revenue and $7.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.8 billion earnings increase from $5.0 billion today.

Uncover how Cigna Group's forecasts yield a $326.26 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

CI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
CI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Simply Wall St Community members currently see Cigna’s fair value anywhere between about US$280 and over US$1,061, across 11 separate views. Against that wide range, the recent spike in Cigna Healthcare’s medical cost ratio highlights how sensitive the story is to affordability pressures and margin risk, encouraging you to weigh several different earnings paths before forming a view.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Cigna Group - why the stock might be worth just $280.00!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.