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MIXI (TSE:2121): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness and Ongoing Earnings Growth

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

MIXI (TSE:2121) has been grinding lower over the past 3 months, even though revenue is still growing and the underlying business spans sports betting, digital entertainment, and lifestyle apps across Japan.

See our latest analysis for MIXI.

Despite the recent slide, MIXI’s 1 year total shareholder return of negative 11.5 percent contrasts with a still positive 3 year total shareholder return of roughly 29 percent, suggesting longer term momentum has not completely broken.

If MIXI’s mixed momentum has you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other fast growing, high conviction ideas.

With earnings still growing but profit under pressure, and the share price trading at a discount to analyst targets, investors now face a key question: is MIXI a discounted growth story, or is future upside already in the price?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.8% Undervalued

With MIXI last closing at ¥2714 against a narrative fair value of ¥3300, the current share price implies investors are discounting its long term potential.

Ongoing integration of advanced AI across company workflows is driving significant improvements in operational efficiency, with 99% employee adoption and over 250 AI based measures implemented, supporting cost reductions and margin expansion, which should positively impact EBITDA and net income.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, rising margins, and a lower future earnings multiple can still add up to upside from here? Unpack the full narrative playbook driving that conclusion and see which forecasted profit path carries the most weight in this valuation story.

Result: Fair Value of ¥3300 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could unravel if aging core titles keep losing users or if overseas lifestyle bets fail to turn heavy spending into profitable growth.

Find out about the key risks to this MIXI narrative.

Build Your Own MIXI Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your MIXI research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.