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Assessing Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) Valuation After Accelerated FDA Filing Plan for AXPAXLI in Wet AMD

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) just sped up the playbook for its lead eye drug by planning to file an FDA application for AXPAXLI in wet AMD based on positive year one SOL-1 Phase 3 data.

See our latest analysis for Ocular Therapeutix.

The pivot to an earlier NDA comes as Ocular Therapeutix trades at $13.72, with a 1 month share price return of 16.67 percent and a year to date share price return of 56.98 percent, while its 3 year total shareholder return of 395.31 percent signals strong long term momentum despite a weak 5 year total shareholder return.

If this kind of regulatory catalyst has your attention, it may be a good moment to explore other potential movers across healthcare stocks and see what else fits your strategy.

With shares already up sharply and analysts still seeing considerable upside, the key question now is whether Ocular Therapeutix is an underappreciated FDA winner in the making or if the market is already pricing in years of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 43.2% Undervalued

With Ocular Therapeutix last closing at $13.72 versus a most popular narrative fair value of $24.17, the storyline leans heavily toward mispriced upside.

The anticipated approval of AXPAXLI, potentially the first wet AMD product with a superiority label and longer dosing intervals (every 6 to 12 months), may allow Ocular Therapeutix to capture significant market share in a rapidly growing population of elderly patients with retinal disease, unlocking large revenue growth opportunities as the global prevalence of ophthalmic disorders increases.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue surge and future profit multiple could support that much upside, even before profitability arrives? The growth math behind this valuation may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $24.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, pivotal trial setbacks for AXPAXLI, or slower than expected uptake in wet AMD and diabetic eye diseases, could quickly challenge today’s bullish growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Ocular Therapeutix narrative.

Build Your Own Ocular Therapeutix Narrative

If this perspective does not quite match your view or you would rather dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ocular Therapeutix research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.