China Post Securities: Gold has made history many times, and precious metals are a bright variety in the non-ferrous metals sector

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Post Securities released a research report saying that in the strategy report at the end of 2024, it is believed that the best performing product in 2025 may be gold, and that the rise will be driven by the replacement of US bonds. Judging from the results, in 2025, precious metals are the most prominent variety in the non-ferrous metals sector. Gold has set record highs many times, and currently the price has stabilized above 4,000 US dollars/ounce; silver has benefited from liquidity logic to obtain a higher increase compared to gold.

The main views of China Post Securities are as follows:

Looking back at 2025, the precious metals market is mainly divided into two stages

The first stage was a diversified market allocation at the beginning of the year. The main starting point was the diversified demand for reserve assets brought about by the Trump administration's tariff expectations, which led to the same changes in US bond interest rates and gold prices. London gold broke through the high of 3,500 US dollars/ounce in April 2025, and gold significantly outperformed silver and gold at this stage. The second stage is the interest rate cut market. It started in mid-August. The market began trading the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and Western gold ETFs increased their positions significantly. At the same time, Bitcoin and other varieties have fluctuated greatly, giving the precious metals market a higher relative value. In the end, gold broke through 4,300 US dollars/ounce at this stage and reached a record high. Silver broke through 55 US dollars/ounce, and significantly outperformed gold at this stage, leading to a decline in the gold to silver ratio.

2026 Market Outlook: Gold

In 2026, the bank believes that the gold market is likely to continue to be interpreted. Under the resonance of the trading market and allocation market, it is not even ruled out that there will be an increase that exceeds expectations. The reasons are as follows: 1. The credit of the US dollar seems to be wavering. On December 4, 2025, the US White House released the “National Security Strategy” report, which reaffirmed America's decades-long policy of pursuing global dominance while emphasizing “shared responsibility” — an expression that not only acknowledged the growing influence of the multipolar world, but also acknowledged the limitations of America's own capabilities. Fundamentally speaking, the new national security strategy will destabilize the dollar's credit. Therefore, the bank believes that there is still supply and demand pressure on US long-term bonds in 2026, making it difficult for stablecoins to relieve the pressure on the long-term debt side, and that the long-term logic of gold replacing US bonds in asset allocation is still valid.

2. The possibility of secondary inflation is increasing. Following the interest rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP again in December. At the same time, relevant officials expressed a certain dovish. Tariffs+interest rate cuts are likely to cause secondary inflation, thereby boosting gold in terms of measuring inflation, and the high yield on long-term treasury bonds suggests this expectation.

3. Continued inflow of ETFs. Historically, after interest rate cuts, ETFs from the US and Europe will flow in. According to dovish expectations, room for interest rate cuts will open up, and the expansion of the Federal Reserve will inevitably suppress short-term interest rates, which will encourage Western investors to continue to buy gold ETFs.

2026 Market Outlook: Silver

The reason why silver outperformed gold after April 2025 is essentially a correction of wind bias and gained relatively greater flexibility in the process of trading physical attributes. As a variety that is about to experience an imbalance between supply and demand for five consecutive years, it may be better than copper from a pure supply and demand perspective, even though it has a huge stock market. The expected transaction, which was compounded by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, fluctuated along with gold, and thus obtained a higher increase. Years of supply shortages have driven speculative demand, and some countries use silver as a reserve asset. Although the People's Bank of China is indifferent, it has fundamentally given silver certain monetary attributes and increased its allocation value. Ultimately, driven by common factors, silver continues to rise to new heights.

Silver is expected to continue to rise in 2026. Not only is the decline in inventories causing tension in the spot market, but it is also expected that some countries will continue to drive shortages in the physical market by capitalizing on their reserves, thereby increasing price flexibility.

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