WEBULL

Tonies (DB:TNIE) Valuation After Toniebox 2 Launch and New Pokémon Partnership

Simply Wall St · 12/17/2025 12:23

Tonies (DB:TNIE) just doubled down on its growth story by rolling out the Toniebox 2 and securing a new Pokémon content partnership, initiatives that together aim to deepen engagement and widen its global customer base.

See our latest analysis for tonies.

Those moves seem to be resonating with investors. The share price is at €9.59 after a strong 90 day share price return of 31.55% and a three year total shareholder return of 75.64%, suggesting momentum is building rather than fading.

If Tonies growth story has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to explore other consumer facing opportunities via fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with the shares already up strongly and trading around a 25% discount to analyst targets, alongside a sizeable implied intrinsic discount, is Tonies still a mispriced growth story or is the market already baking in its next chapter?

Most Popular Narrative: 15.6% Undervalued

With tonies closing at €9.59 against a narrative fair value of about €11.37, the storyline points to meaningful upside if assumptions play out.

The ongoing pipeline of product innovation, including launches of new content formats like Book Tonies (targeting older children), rapid growth in proprietary content and branded partnerships, and potential platform upgrades, positions tonies to deepen household engagement and increase average selling prices. This is expected to lift gross margins and drive higher customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a fast climbing revenue curve, expanding margins, and a cooled down future earnings multiple still add up to upside potential? The narrative breaks down the exact growth runway, profitability shift, and valuation compression it expects tonies to deliver, and how those moving parts combine into that higher fair value.

Result: Fair Value of €11.37 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could unravel if digital streaming accelerates faster than expected or if key content licenses become costlier or harder to renew.

Find out about the key risks to this tonies narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

Looked at through an earnings lens, tonies tells a tougher story. The shares trade on about 39.6x earnings, versus 12.2x for peers, and a fair ratio of 21x, which points to a punchy valuation that could compress quickly if growth or sentiment wobble.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

DB:TNIE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
DB:TNIE PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

Build Your Own tonies Narrative

If you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself and challenge these assumptions, you can build a customised tonies view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your tonies research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more high conviction ideas?

Before you move on, give yourself the chance to uncover other mispriced stories and future winners that could complement or even outperform your tonies thesis.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.