Open Source Securities: The satellite industry ushered in a golden window of accelerated networking and an inflection point in costs

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that in the satellite industry chain, upstream satellite manufacturing and launch links were the first to benefit from the peak of networking. According to the industrial chain breakdown, the satellite industry chain includes the full life cycle chain of the space segment (satellite manufacturing and rocket launch), the ground segment (construction of ground facilities such as communication stations, core networks, monitoring stations, etc.), and the user segment; among them, upstream satellite manufacturing and launch are the first to benefit in today's low-orbit satellite networking process.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Technology is cut high and low, and emphasis is placed on highly resilient varieties such as satellites

The bank previously recommended investment opportunities for satellites in several reports: proposed investment opportunities in the military industry (satellite); in “The core investment value of the Guangfa China Securities Satellite Industry ETF (512630.OF) - large market size, dual policy and technology drive, and rich application scenarios”, the bank proposed that “the satellite industry is a strategic investment opportunity with strong certainty, and has characteristics such as large market potential, strong policy support, accelerated technology iteration, and broadening application scenarios.” “Now is the time to configure the satellite industry.” Further, the current catalysis in the commercial aerospace (satellite) sector has been further accelerated. The bank believes that it is currently in the golden window for the satellite deployment industry.

Incident: Recent frequent low-orbit satellite outbreaks, compounded by major incidents of recyclable rocket launches

Since this year, the frequency of launches of Chinese low-orbit satellites has increased markedly. In particular, in the direction of satellite internet, a high-density, batch launch rhythm has been formed. Recently, satellite launches have accelerated markedly, achieving “three consecutive launches in 7 days”, and the number of low-orbit satellites carried each time has increased.

For commercial aerospace, the launch of a recyclable rocket is a landmark event. On December 3, 2025, the private recyclable rocket Suzake-3 was launched at the Jiuquan satellite launch site, challenging rocket orbital recycling for the first time, marking a major leap forward in China's aerospace industry. In addition to Suzake-3, China's other recyclable rocket, Long March 12A, may have recently been launched. For commercial aerospace, the launch of recyclable rockets is significant, marking a drastic reduction in satellite launch costs and a rapid increase in commercial aerospace.

The core logic of the satellite industry: large market size, dual policy and technology drive, and expansion of application scenarios

The market size has great potential and strong growth potential: The low-orbit satellite constellation has become a new racetrack in the space game of major countries. Under competition for frequency orbital resources, the satellite industry's market space is worth trillion dollars. Compelled by competition for low-orbit satellite resources, the entire satellite industry chain is expected to move ahead of schedule from the “investment incubation period” to the “profit cashing out period”. In the satellite industry chain, upstream satellite manufacturing and launch links took the lead in benefiting at the peak of networking.

Policy technology two-wheel drive: Under top-level policy design, institutional openness and industrial support help compete for low-orbit satellites. Technological breakthroughs are the key to reducing the cost of satellite launches and increasing the frequency of satellite launches. The satellite industry relies on three major breakthroughs in rocket recycling, mass satellite production, and innovation in materials and communication technology.

Expanding application scenarios: Expanding application scenarios is also the key to expanding the satellite market in the middle and late stages. According to application scenarios, it can be divided into military and civilian use. A two-way breakthrough in civil-military integration may spawn a new blue ocean in the satellite market. Currently, satellite application scenarios are rapidly expanding from government/military to consumer and industry levels. Application scenarios include mobile phones directly connected to satellites, high-precision positioning in intelligent driving, three-dimensional communication, space economy, and industrial digitalization.

Risk warning: risk of market fluctuations, risk of changes in space policy, risk of changes in the fundamentals of the satellite industry.