Tianfeng Securities believes that the pre-credit trend will be more obvious in 2026. It is optimistic about promising loans, but it is not ruled out that general deposits will still be impacted by the expiration of high-interest term deposits and the diversion effects brought about by the rise in the stock market. It is expected that the central bank will increase its basic currency care efforts, and MDS+MLF+ treasury bond trading will increase. Although there will be a certain degree of financial tension in 2025Q1, it is not ruled out that the market will continue to be tense in 2025Q1. The 2025Q4 Bank may have a forward-looking layout to increase capital requirements across 2026Q1, such as 6M interbank deposits and buyout reverse repurchases. Credit is expected to decline sharply in 2026Q2 and trigger “recessionary easing”. The share of credit growth in Q2-Q4 is expected to decline further compared to previous years.

Tianfeng Securities believes that the pre-credit trend will be more obvious in 2026. It is optimistic about promising loans, but it is not ruled out that general deposits will still be impacted by the expiration of high-interest term deposits and the diversion effects brought about by the rise in the stock market. It is expected that the central bank will increase its basic currency care efforts, and MDS+MLF+ treasury bond trading will increase. Although there will be a certain degree of financial tension in 2025Q1, it is not ruled out that the market will continue to be tense in 2025Q1. The 2025Q4 Bank may have a forward-looking layout to increase capital requirements across 2026Q1, such as 6M interbank deposits and buyout reverse repurchases. Credit is expected to decline sharply in 2026Q2 and trigger “recessionary easing”. The share of credit growth in Q2-Q4 is expected to decline further compared to previous years.