Vietnam won’t let go of the global economy

The fortitude of the world economy is an eye-opener.

Tariffs haven’t resulted in the recession widely feared when US President Donald Trump imposed them in April.

Some of the most vulnerable nations are not only coping, but doing pretty well. Just look at Vietnam.

Is it a case of bullet dodged or delayed impact?

Vietnam’s experience tells us a lot about the trade saga. If the outlook begins to deteriorate in a meaningful way, we’ll see it early there.

The communist-led nation has become thoroughly intertwined with the fate of global capitalism.

Growth ought to be under siege – on paper.

The government embraced a development strategy that hinged on attracting supply chains in apparel, furniture and low-cost production, and then began moving up into technology.

In doing so, it learned from the experience of China and emerging-market darlings of an earlier generation.

Rapid expansion in gross domestic product and a huge boost to living standards ensued, as did a yawning trade surplus with the United States that attracted uncomfortable scrutiny.

The gap is the third largest after China and Mexico.

Such a lopsided trade relationship wasn’t going to be cost-free indefinitely.

One line of complaint held that large numbers of Chinese goods were doing little more than transiting through Vietnam en route to the United States.

Certainly, direct investment from its massive neighbour to the north grew significantly. And if factory owners from the West wanted a cheap place close to China but not in it, there was a lot to like.

The levies imposed by the White House in April, in theory, should’ve dealt a blow to this model. But Vietnam has held its own.

Exports were slightly off compared with forecasts in November, but the performance has been impressive: Shipments to the United States climbed 27% in the first 11 months of the year, reaching a record US$139bil, according to recent figures.

Manufacturing increased 12% in November from a year earlier.

Economic growth in the third quarter was within striking distance of Hanoi’s 10% annual target; gross domestic product climbed 8.2%, matching India’s clip and making the nation the star performer in East Asia.

Vietnam still looks like a trade-war winner, the label fans pinned on it during Trump’s first term. (I was sceptical but have come around.)

The country didn’t need a resilient global scene to outperform its neighbours, but it helped.

Growth worldwide will top 3% this year and slacken a bit to 2.9% in the coming 12 months, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest projections for the biggest economies.

The United States, which has taken from China the role of disrupter in chief, will do fine, notching a 2% expansion. The International Monetary Fund’s forecasts are similar.

The OECD’s chief, Mathias Cormann, a former Australian finance minister, spoke for those repelled by tariffs – and who might be a little shocked that Armageddon isn’t yet on the doorstep.

They will gradually push up costs, and curb spending and investment, he told reporters this month.

Along with praise for the global economy’s springiness, there are signs that growth will slow.

The United Nations notes that trade in goods and services will top a record US$35 trillion this year, an increase of around 7% from last year. The biggest chunk occurred in the first half, due to an earlier surge attributed to stockpiling, as companies built up inventories in anticipation of tariff shocks.

Vietnam would have benefited from that.

Hanoi was smart to engage with Washington early on.The levy was negotiated down from 46% to 20%, the level that most of South-East Asia ended up with, accompanied by a pact to crack down on transshipments: the movement of goods that are substantially made in China and routed through third countries, like Vietnam, and on to the United States.

This is difficult to get right when you are trying to become indispensable to the supply chain.

Few products are made in any single place. Where did the most significant component originate, and does it provide the essential character of the item?

With luck, the slowdown won’t be deep. Vietnam needs the factories to keep humming.

Its development still lags many peers that got into the low-cost manufacturing game far earlier, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

Hanoi wants upper-middle-income status by the end of this decade. It’s hard to square that with a cratering of trade.

Consumers around the world need the stuff Vietnam churns out, ranging from sneakers to furniture and computers.

To gauge the health of world commerce next year, look at how the South-East Asian export powerhouse is travelling. Their destinies are bound. — Bloomberg

Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.