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Does Analyst Upgrades On Enterprise And International ARR Change The Bull Case For Toast (TOST)?

Simply Wall St · 20h ago
  • Earlier this month, UBS reaffirmed its positive view on Toast while JPMorgan upgraded the stock, pointing to strong third-quarter 2025 results, robust revenue growth, and accelerating annual recurring revenue across key segments.
  • Analysts emphasized Toast’s expanding Enterprise, international, and food and beverage retail businesses as meaningful new ARR engines that could reshape its long-term growth mix.
  • Next, we’ll examine how this renewed analyst conviction around Toast’s Enterprise and international ARR potential influences the company’s broader investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Toast Investment Narrative Recap

To own Toast, you need to believe that integrated, software-led payments can keep gaining share across restaurants while new Enterprise and international segments scale meaningfully. The latest UBS and JPMorgan calls reinforce that narrative and, in the near term, mainly support the existing catalyst around ARR growth, without materially changing the key risk that elevated sales and marketing spending may be needed to unlock that expansion.

The most relevant recent announcement here is Toast surpassing US$2.0 billion in ARR in the third quarter of 2025, aided by strong Enterprise and international traction. That progress directly underpins the analyst focus on these segments as future ARR engines, but it also raises the stakes: sustaining this momentum may require continued heavy investment, with uncertain payoffs if new markets or customer cohorts prove slower to monetize than expected.

Yet behind Toast’s accelerating ARR and upbeat analyst views, there is a real concern investors should be aware of around rising sales and marketing spend and...

Read the full narrative on Toast (it's free!)

Toast's narrative projects $8.9 billion revenue and $738.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 17.3% yearly revenue growth and a $514.5 million earnings increase from $224.0 million today.

Uncover how Toast's forecasts yield a $47.42 fair value, a 36% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

TOST 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TOST 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Eleven Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Toast span roughly US$26.79 to US$58.86, highlighting how far apart individual views can be. Against that wide range, the focus on Toast’s Enterprise and international ARR momentum gives you an additional lens on how growth ambitions could influence future profitability and capital allocation, so it is worth exploring several of these perspectives before forming your own view.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Toast - why the stock might be worth 23% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Toast Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Toast research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Toast research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Toast's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.