Walsh later took the lead! Predictive market data shows that the probability of being nominated by the Federal Reserve Chairman is higher than Hassett

The Zhitong Finance App learned that as doubts about Kevin Hassett's candidacy within the Trump camp heated up, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh later took the lead and became a popular candidate for US President Trump to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

On the prediction platform Kalshi, data given by traders on Monday showed that the probability of Walsh being nominated was about 46%, slightly higher than Hassett's 39%. Just last week, Hassett's chances of winning were as high as 77%, while Walsh's probability was as low as 10%. The situation between the two was clearly reversed in a short period of time.

People familiar with the matter revealed that this change stemmed from some senior figures within Trump's core circle putting forward new objections to Hassett. These advisers, who can directly touch the president, are concerned that Hassett, the current director of the National Economic Council, has too close ties with Trump, which may weaken the Federal Reserve's proper institutional independence and credibility.

Related resistance may also explain the repetition in the nomination process at the beginning of this month. People familiar with the matter said that the candidate interview scheduled to be held in early December was suddenly cancelled, but at least in Walsh's case, the relevant interview was then rescheduled and completed last week.

Walsh served as a member of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2011, and has long been regarded as a credible candidate for chairman of the Federal Reserve in the Republican Party camp. In contrast, Hassett was a core member of Trump's economic team during his two terms. This background, which is highly close to the White House, is becoming a potential risk in the eyes of some advisors.

The market's bet on candidate changes accelerated further last week. Trump previously told the media that he had decided on a candidate for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, but later changed his statement in an interview to say that Walsh had already ranked among the “first tier” candidates, adding new uncertainty to this personnel struggle.