Calculating The Fair Value Of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Tencent Music Entertainment Group fair value estimate is US$21.53
• With US$17.88 share price, Tencent Music Entertainment Group appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Analyst price target for TME is CN¥26.78, which is 24% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥11.1b	CN¥12.2b	CN¥14.9b	CN¥16.4b	CN¥17.6b	CN¥18.6b	CN¥19.6b	CN¥20.5b	CN¥21.3b	CN¥22.2b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x8	Analyst x7	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Est @ 7.06%	Est @ 5.92%	Est @ 5.12%	Est @ 4.56%	Est @ 4.17%	Est @ 3.90%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8%	CN¥10.1k	CN¥10.1k	CN¥11.3k	CN¥11.3k	CN¥11.0k	CN¥10.6k	CN¥10.2k	CN¥9.7k	CN¥9.2k	CN¥8.7k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥102b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (3.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥22b× (1 + 3.3%) ÷ (9.8%– 3.3%) = CN¥351b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥351b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)¹⁰= CN¥138b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥240b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$17.9, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tencent Music Entertainment Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.244. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Check out our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group

SWOT Analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Tencent Music Entertainment Group, we've put together three further aspects you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does TME have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does TME's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.