Glacier Media Inc. (TSE:GVC) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 31% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 64% in the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Glacier Media's P/S ratio of 0.2x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Media industry in Canada is also close to 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
Check out our latest analysis for Glacier Media
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Glacier Media over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Glacier Media's earnings, revenue and cash flow.There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Glacier Media's to be considered reasonable.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.8%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 22% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 6.4% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Glacier Media's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
Glacier Media's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
The fact that Glacier Media currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Glacier Media (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.