Zhongtai Securities Machinery Industry Investment Strategy 2026: Focus on New Technology and Embrace the Cyclical Cycle

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that the overall performance of the machinery industry was superior to the general market in 2025, the equipment sector as a whole continued to rise, and the internal growth rate of the sector was somewhat divided. In terms of domestic demand, the growth rate of infrastructure investment remains low. Although demand has been repaired, momentum is insufficient. External demand continued to pick up, and both exports and orders showed an improving trend. Maintain the “gain” rating of the machinery and equipment industry, and be optimistic about new technologies including: humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned vehicles, and perovskite; procyclical direction: construction machinery, oil services, and consumer equipment.

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

2026 outlook

Faced with the uncertain challenges of the current economic situation, China has taken a series of positive measures to stabilize the economy. China's economic recovery momentum is expected to continue in 2026, macroeconomic sentiment is expected to pick up moderately, and domestic demand in the manufacturing industry is expected to improve and benefit at the same time. The “15th Five-Year Plan” proposes a forward-looking layout of future industries such as quantum technology, biomantry, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications. The bank carried out an in-depth analysis of nuclear fusion, embodied intelligence, and quantum technology. Focus on: new technology, pro-cyclical.

New technology

Industrial upgrading and autonomy require the industry to continue to introduce original and disruptive technological innovations to promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry, focusing on humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned operation, and perovskite. Humanoid robots: The driving force of the industry is shifting from themed games to value verification. The 2026 mass production pace and scenario orders will reshape the main investment line, focusing on the dual opportunities of the global benchmark chain and the local volume chain. Nuclear fusion: Technological progress in the industry is accelerating, policy support continues, and long-term commercialization prospects are clear. Focus on the tokamak technology route and the key links in it. Quantum technology: The industrialization process has been accelerated across the board, and China has a window to catch up. The focus is on the three core tracks of quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement, and their key upstream hardware. Low-speed unmanned: Unmanned sanitation has commercial prospects, and unmanned logistics is entering a stage of rapid growth. Focus on leading enterprises in unmanned logistics and unmanned sanitation operations. Perovskite: Crystalline silicon laminated batteries have reached an inflection point in cost performance, and GW-grade production lines are expected to be concentrated. Focus on the whole line equipment and upstream auxiliary materials.

Cyclic

Incrementally look at overseas expansion as a result of boosting prosperity, and stock depends on policy driving demand for renewal. Exports are expected to remain strong in 2026: since 2025, the global manufacturing PMI fell first and then rose. In November, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.6%. The export boom is expected to continue as the US and Europe's monetary policy expectations shift towards easing, compounding China's advantages in the non-US market and indirect export chains. Construction machinery: The industry is recovering strongly, overseas exports continue to grow at a high rate, and domestic sales have rebounded steadily under multiple drivers, focusing on leading enterprises with leading machine components and electrification and intelligent layout. Oil service: The entire natural gas industry chain has entered an upward cycle, and demand for AI computing power is driving rapid growth in new electricity. Consumer equipment: Innovation on the consumer device side is accelerating, export chain boom is rising, the penetration of “AI+ equipment” is accelerating, and the value of core components has increased.

Risk warning: risk of policy uncertainty; risk of exports falling short of expectations; risk of deviation in industry size measurement; risk of performance of relevant recommended targets falling short of expectations; risk of untimely updating of information on the use of research reports; risk of distorted data from third parties.