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Harmonic (HLIT): Assessing Valuation After a 9% One-Month Rebound and Year-to-Date Share Price Decline

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Harmonic (HLIT) has quietly bounced back over the past month, gaining about 9%, even though its year-to-date return remains down roughly 20%. That mix of momentum and drawdown is catching value-minded investors’ attention.

See our latest analysis for Harmonic.

That recent 1 month share price return of 9.41% looks more like a relief rally than a full trend change, especially with the year to date share price return still down about 20% and the 3 year total shareholder return negative despite a stronger 5 year total shareholder return.

If Harmonic has you watching momentum shifts in tech, this could be a moment to explore other high growth tech and AI names via high growth tech and AI stocks.

With earnings still growing and the share price lagging, investors are left with a key question: is Harmonic a misunderstood value in broadband and video infrastructure, or is the market already pricing in its next wave of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

With Harmonic closing at $10.46 versus a narrative fair value near $11.79, the story leans toward upside if its growth and margin path materializes.

Strong order book and deferred revenue ($504.5 million), record rest of world broadband sales, and robust Video SaaS momentum (with new partnerships like Akamai and expansion with customers like ViewLift) all indicate building demand that is expected to convert into revenue and earnings growth over the coming quarters.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line assumptions can still support rapid earnings growth and a richer future earnings multiple than today, without stretching credulity? The narrative quietly blends revenue stability, margin expansion, and shrinking share count into a price target that could surprise investors who only see recent volatility. Want to see exactly how those levers add up to that fair value?

Result: Fair Value of $11.79 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on major customers like Comcast and rapidly evolving broadband technology could quickly undermine those earnings and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Harmonic narrative.

Build Your Own Harmonic Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Harmonic research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.