Microsoft (MSFT.US) has gotten rid of its dependency on OpenAI, and Copilot is Wall Street's “trump card” that is optimistic about moving towards a market capitalization of 5 trillion dollars!

The Zhitong Finance App notes that Microsoft (MSFT.US) and OpenAI may still be deeply intertwined, but Wall Street believes that the real story is that the former has begun to dance alone in the booming AI world.

And that could give the 50-year-old tech giant — known for its Windows operating system, Azure cloud services, and the recently launched Copilot chatbot — an advantageous position to add trillions of dollars to its market value over the next ten years.

“As the AI revolution enters the next phase of growth, Microsoft's market capitalization will reach $5 trillion by 2026,” said Wedbush Tech analyst Dan Ives. Microsoft's current market capitalization: $3.59 trillion.

Although Microsoft's $5 trillion train is steadily moving forward, its most critical passenger is still OpenAI.

“We're seeing... the entire ecosystem really starting to move closer to us to help us create this future,” said Sarah Freer, OpenAI's chief financial officer.

She added that in order to meet high computing demands — which she called the “cornerstone” driving the next AI era, the company is likely to continue collaborating with third party companies — hinting at Microsoft.

“I'm thrilled that Microsoft is making these investments,” co-founder Bill Gates previously told the media, pointing out that although AI is growing “rapidly,” there is still “huge uncertainty” there.

Gates expects this emerging technology to become “extremely powerful” within the next three to five years, adding that Microsoft is clearly a “competitor” in the AI arms race.

The beginning of the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI

This deep relationship began in 2019, when Microsoft made an initial $1 billion investment in Sam Ultrman's OpenAI — a big gamble on the next generation of artificial intelligence that could revolutionize the future of computing and cloud services.

The investment gave Microsoft priority access to cutting-edge AI models, a key advantage over rival tech giants. In return, OpenAI received the computing power, infrastructure, and distribution channels needed to train and deploy AI tools, as well as long-term funding and stability.

For Microsoft, the deal was never just a financial investment — it was a gamble that AI would be the next major platform change, a transformation that could redefine the industry, just like Windows once did for personal computers. Since then, Microsoft has invested around $13 billion in OpenAI — a figure that CEO Nadella recently confirmed.

Since that initial investment, Microsoft has been on a par with OpenAI.

OpenAI's Freer notes that the company is “indeed largely funded by Microsoft”.

Even though OpenAI is now valued at $500 billion and Microsoft holds about 27% of the shares after revising the partnership in late October, experts say Microsoft's future is not defined by its shares in the company Ultraman called “the largest non-profit organization in history.”

This stock may have bought Microsoft a ticket to the AI feast — but the company's real strategy is to have a stage where all the other tech giants dance.

Microsoft surpasses OpenAI

Microsoft's AI advantage stems from how it integrates AI technology into every layer of its technology — from Azure and Office, to developer tools, enterprise software, to consumer products such as Bing and Edge.

The most obvious manifestation of this deep integration is Copilot, Microsoft's generative artificial intelligence assistant, used in productivity applications such as Microsoft 365, operating systems such as Windows, and workflows such as GitHub Copilot.

Logan Brown, founder of software development platform Sexton.ai, said that Microsoft's ability to integrate AI tools like Copilot into its entire product suite makes it a unique position in the AI field.

“Microsoft has such a dominant position in their product suite that they will be able to integrate and become a 'Copilot' in that sense.” She notes that “most people are renting” Microsoft's infrastructure.

A Microsoft spokesperson said that as the company aims to gain a slice of the AI market, it is focusing on seven key trends in 2026, including enhancing human capabilities, equipping smart devices with better protection measures, and narrowing the health gap.

The speed and scale of AI innovation within Microsoft is critical for investors, who increasingly believe that Microsoft's reliance on OpenAI is decreasing rather than increasing, even though the partnership between the two parties remains financially and technically important.

“From a business strategy perspective, it feels like Microsoft continues to rely on a very, very important partner, but is also developing its own AI internally to hedge risks,” said Robert Simans, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business.

He added that this “hedging” allows Microsoft to use internal and external resources to provide tailored AI solutions for its “vast customer base.”

Analysts have mixed opinions on the importance of OpenAI in Microsoft's current investment arguments.

RBC analyst Rishi Galluria believes that because of its early bet on OpenAI, Microsoft still enjoyed a “leading edge for many years” in the AI field, which enabled it to obtain intellectual property (IP) rights, priority pricing, and research access, which helped it take a position in the AI competition early on.

The financial benefits from OpenAI are also more limited than some investors assume.

Despite holding 27% of the shares, Microsoft did not confirm OpenAI's profits in its income statement — only its share of losses. The only meaningful benefit is an increase in the value of shares, but this will only be reflected until OpenAI goes public or makes a significant profit. Both are still unknown.

DA Davidson analyst Jill Luria estimates that only 17% of Microsoft Azure's total revenue comes from AI workloads. More importantly, he estimates that revenue directly related to reselling the OpenAI model accounts for only 6% of this portion, while approximately 75% comes from Azure AI, or Microsoft's own infrastructure and services, “considering that OpenAI is helping Microsoft generate revenue elsewhere,” according to Luria.

Financial data shows that the independent Azure AI business, not OpenAI's equity, is the key driver of value.

Unbundling cooperation

The revised partnership between the two parties aims to finally loosen the ties — to the benefit of both parties. Microsoft lost “preferential purchasing rights,” but retained long-term intellectual property rights until 2032, including general artificial intelligence (AGI) rights, and obtained favorable application programming interface (API) economic terms. This is critical because Microsoft earns revenue every time an enterprise app calls OpenAI's API.

OpenAI's eventual IPO may change the balance of power between the two parties, but analysts don't think it will substantially weaken Microsoft.

At the same time, the new agreement allows for diversified development between the two sides. OpenAI can seek deals with other cloud providers — it has already done so, through a series of partnerships with companies such as Oracle (ORCL.US), AMD (AMD .US), Samsung, and Nvidia (NVDA .US).

Meanwhile, Microsoft is free to deepen collaboration with other model providers, most notably Anthropic. Microsoft announced a $5 billion investment commitment to Anthropic in November. Crucially, Anthropic promised to buy $30 billion of Azure computing capacity, locking in huge future revenue for Microsoft. Recently, Microsoft said it will invest $17.5 billion in India over the next four years to accelerate its AI roadmap.

KeyBanc analyst Jackson Adell said he believes this transformation is Microsoft's “quest for independence” rather than a hedge. “It's OK to seek cooperation from the outside world; it's a great diversification strategy,” he said. I just don't think this has much of an impact because they're still working with the best partner (OpenAI).”

Future layout

Experts say Microsoft's ultimate advantage over the next ten years is the breadth of its AI layout.

RBC's Galluria pointed out Azure training and inference workloads, such as GitHub Copilot for developers and enterprise applications incorporating AI through Office. Even Microsoft's LinkedIn and its Activision Blizzard gaming division have AI-driven profit potential.

“No other company has such a product portfolio,” he said. Currently, Galleria gives Microsoft a buy rating, and the target price is $640. The data shows that Wall Street is generally optimistic about Microsoft.

Analysts believe Microsoft's next major growth point may be intelligent AI — AI agents capable of executing multi-step workflows. They expect Microsoft to go hand in hand with ServiceNow and Salesforce to become a top player.

While adoption of Copilot is still in its early stages, Gialluria said adoption could grow “slowly and steadily” as AI features are more deeply integrated into everyday workflows. Office will be the entry point,” he said.

The AI bubble theory is unresolved

This optimism has not eliminated the risks Microsoft faces with regard to AI. The number one risk is overconstruction.

Microsoft has previously stated that it is expected to spend $80 billion on AI infrastructure by fiscal year 2025. Meanwhile, according to reports, a separate large-scale project called “Stargate” in collaboration with OpenAI has an initial investment of 100 billion US dollars and is in the early planning stages. According to subsequent reports, the project is now a multi-party joint venture involving Microsoft, OpenAI, and other participants such as SoftBank, Oracle (ORCL.US), and Metagenomi (MGX.US), and plans to finally invest up to 500 billion US dollars by 2029.

Still, investors are wary about how fast Microsoft is investing.

If demand for AI slows down, or if competitive models significantly surpass GPT in terms of performance, Adele warns that Microsoft may look like it “bought a Ferrari when it only needed a Prius”.

The second major risk is market sentiment.” “If AI fails to deliver on its promises,” Adele said, “Microsoft will fall into a negative AI trading sentiment,” even if its fundamentals remain strong.

However, most analysts agree that the company is still one of the strongest AI concept stocks of the decade. OpenAI gave Microsoft a leading edge, but its growing network of AI partners gave the company the staying power to not rely on any single model.