GF Securities: Bulk carrier+tanker recovery demand has reached the second acceleration stage

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that the Q4 base has declined, terminal freight rates have improved, and external uncertainty has eased. The shipbuilding industry has reached an inflection point in demand, focusing on the beta recovery of the shipbuilding industry next year. The shipbuilding market in 2021-2024 was driven by container-superimposed LNG carriers as the core driving force, and the shipbuilding market declined in '25 due to the impact of the US 301. The bank believes that starting in '26, the ship demand market will enter phase 2.0. The shipbuilding market in 2026 is expected to be similar to construction machinery in 2019, and a second acceleration in demand is expected to stimulate an increase in the valuation center.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

In January, new ship orders were corrected year-on-year for the first time, and the marginal inflection point for bulk carriers and tankers has reached

According to Clarksons, the CGT/ DWT/ amount of new ship orders in November grew by 3.5%/37.6%/20.1% year on year; in October-November, the order growth rate for bulk carriers and tankers was faster. Bulk carrier order weight tons were +87.32%/+0.33% year on year, respectively, and tanker order load tons were +24.34%/284% year on year, respectively. Further improvements are expected in the future, and the price index for new bulk carriers and tankers is picking up. The cumulative number of new ship orders for the whole year reached 116 million dwt, and the recovery in the industry in the second half of the year accelerated orders. The Q4 base has declined, terminal freight rates have improved, and external uncertainty has eased. The shipbuilding industry has reached an inflection point in demand, focusing on the beta recovery of the shipbuilding industry next year.

Bulk carriers: Simandou iron ore is officially put into operation. High yield and long haul distances bring additional capacity requirements for cape-type ships

According to Wind, the Simandou iron ore project was officially put into operation in November 2025. Simandou's production scale is equivalent to about 10% of China's iron ore imports in 2024, which is equivalent to 7.5% of global iron ore transportation. According to Sindh Maritime, Drury and Clarksons, the Cimandou project will drive the overall bulk carrier capacity demand by about 2%-3%. There are insufficient orders on hand for superimposed bulk carriers, the average age of ships is aging, and the contradiction between supply and demand for bulk cargo has intensified.

Tankers: The supply of effective capacity has been insufficient for a long time, and demand for renewal is the core driving force

According to Clarksons, the average age of the current tanker fleet is over 14 years old. Of the current capacity, older ships over 20 account for about 21%, while hand orders account for about 16.73% of capacity. On-hand orders cannot cover the aging renewal needs of existing capacity, and capacity will be scarce for a long time. Insufficient orders for tankers are mainly due to weak demand and weak freight rates in the early stages. As a result, shipowners are careful to place orders, and oversized shipyards are scarce. Combined with early container ships, etc., crowding out docks, but as the aging of the fleet deepens and freight rates improve, shipowners' willingness to place orders is increasing.

Container ships: Whether the Red Sea will resume navigation is the main variable, there is still support for branch line demand

Currently, there is still uncertainty about navigation in the Red Sea. The container ship market may face a certain impact, but the current capacity of feeder ships is still significantly insufficient. The capacity growth rate of ships below 8,000 TEU will decline in 27 years, and this unbalanced ship structure is more serious among leading shipowners. Therefore, demand for small and medium-sized ships such as branch ships from leading shipowners is expected to rise; combined with the long-term decline in capacity efficiency, there is still some support for container ship demand.

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