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ORIX (TSE:8591) Valuation Check as New CEO Hidetake Takahashi Prepares to Succeed Makoto Inoue

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

ORIX (TSE:8591) just confirmed a major leadership transition, with President Hidetake Takahashi set to become CEO from January 2026 as long serving chief Makoto Inoue moves into a Corporate Advisor role.

See our latest analysis for ORIX.

The leadership shuffle comes after a strong run, with a roughly 34 percent year to date share price return and a standout five year total shareholder return of about 245 percent. This suggests momentum is still firmly with ORIX as investors price in steady growth and buybacks.

If this kind of strategic transition has you thinking about what else might be compounding quietly in the background, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the shares trading close to analyst targets but still sitting on a hefty implied intrinsic discount, the question now is simple: is ORIX quietly undervalued, or are markets already baking in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 0.3% Overvalued

With ORIX last closing at ¥4,518 versus a narrative fair value of ¥4,506.25, expectations hinge on modestly improving growth, margins, and capital efficiency.

The company is leveraging the global increase in demand for alternative and private capital, as seen by robust inflows at Robeco and strong growth in third-party AUM (¥81 trillion, up ¥7 trillion in three months), pointing to a secular shift towards sustainable fee-based revenue and improving margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what happens when steady asset growth, rising margins, and a richer future earnings multiple are all baked into one roadmap? The narrative spells it out.

Result: Fair Value of ¥4,506.25 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy reliance on one-off asset sales and persistent macro uncertainty means earnings could prove lumpier than the current smooth growth roadmap implies.

Find out about the key risks to this ORIX narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

While the narrative view sees ORIX as roughly fairly priced, its earnings-based valuation tells a more generous story. At 11.4 times earnings versus 12.3 times for the Japan diversified financials sector and 22.2 times for peers, ORIX screens as notably cheaper.

Our fair ratio for the shares is 17.4 times earnings. This implies the market could move toward a much richer multiple if the story holds together, but also that re-rating risk cuts both ways if earnings disappoint. Which version of value do you trust?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSE:8591 PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
TSE:8591 PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

Build Your Own ORIX Narrative

If you are not convinced by this view or prefer to lean on your own homework, you can build a fresh take in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ORIX research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.